A public sector strike is due to bring Northern Ireland to a virtual standstill on Thursday. An estimated 170,000 workers across the health, education, transport, and other sectors will walk out over the refusal of public sector employers to give pay rises matching those agreed in Britain. The coincidence of the industrial action with a spell of cold weather will add to the discomfort of the public.
Unmet pay demands may be the stated reason for the strike, but responsibility is being laid at the feet of Jeffrey Donaldson and his Democratic Unionist Party who have refused to enter a power sharing executive with Sinn Féin. The restoration of Stormont would unlock £3.3 billion promised by London, which would allow the North’s public sector employers to meet the unions’ demands.
Intransigence may well be the hallmark of unionist politics, but it is still hard to see how obstructing pay rises for public sector workers constitutes sound electoral politics on Donaldson’s part. Perhaps this partly explains why he is making more optimistic noises about “progress” during talks this week with Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris.
Donaldson’s calculus has been that the cost in electoral terms of going in to a Sinn Féin led administration is too great and will open the door to other more hardline unionist parties. He may even prefer to take his chances in fresh assembly elections that technically will be triggered if Stormont is not restored by Thursday.
Donaldson must also be relying on his supporters seeing the British government’s tactics for what they are. What started out as a financial inducement to go back into power sharing has morphed into a clumsy attempt to exert public pressure on the DUP.
The only reason public sector pay rises are linked to the restoration of power sharing is because London wants it that way. This approach speaks volumes about the frustration of the Sunak government with the DUP but also displays a certain indifference towards the people of Northern Ireland.