Two years into Ukraine’s war, ostensibly launched to curb Nato “overreach”, and the real fruit of Russian aggression becomes clear. Nato is stronger, more united by the day. Hungary’s parliament on Monday lifted the last obstacle to Swedish accession. It will be the organisation’s 32nd member.
This has happened just days after Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán, Putin’s staunchest defender in the EU, promised the two countries were now “prepared to die for each other”. His objection to Swedish membership, the alleged denigration by Sweden of Hungary’s democratic standards, is no longer apparently a problem. And this all follows an increasingly isolated Orbán retreating from blocking further EU Ukraine aid.
Sweden, which now follows Finland, another former neutral, into the western alliance, has for some time eschewed the characterisation of its defence posture as “neutral”, preferring to see itself as militarily non-aligned, politically firmly allied to the west and the EU. It has embraced close co-operation with Nato and participated in many joint exercises.
Importantly, it does not see the alliance, as its detractors in Ireland, Russia, and elsewhere caricature it, as simply a tool of the US, an imperialist vehicle. On the contrary, as Sweden’s vulnerable Baltic neighbours see it, it is as an essential buffer against aggressive Russia, an expression of welcome collective solidarity from European partners. Deterrence through strength.
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The Ukraine-driven reappraisal of long-standing defence and security within the EU is far-reaching. In Ireland, an assessment of our Defence Forces as unfit for purpose has seen the beginnings of a debate about how to protect ourselves from cyber warfare and threats to vulnerable underwater cables. The way forward need not entail Nato membership, but there are huge resource implications Ireland must face up to.
In Germany, meanwhile, despite a reluctance to re-arm and a post-second-World War determination to be seen as a force for peace, the debate is well under way.