Rishi Sunak has little to be cheerful about at the moment, but the embattled UK prime minister could be forgiven a wry smile at events unfolding north of the border in Edinburgh, where the once all-conquering SNP is beset by crises, mostly of its own making.
Barely a year into the job, first minister Humza Yousaf has resigned. He was facing one confidence vote in himself, and another in his government and has said he was not willing to make the “compromises” necessary to hold on in office.
With the parliamentary arithmetic finely balanced, Yousaf’s fate rested in large part with his former party colleague Ash Regan, now a member of the Alba party. Regan left the SNP over her unhappiness with the party’s position on gender issues and the campaign for Scottish independence. She had indicated she would require commitments from Yousaf on these and other matters if she was to consider supporting him. This was a step too far for Yousaf, whose tactics over the past week left him boxed in.
The crisis blew up when Yousaf unilaterally ended the SNP’s partnership with the Green party and opted to continue with a minority administration. That move followed Green discontent over the scrapping of ambitious emissions reduction targets. It also reflected uneasiness within some parts of the SNP at the perceived excessive influence of the Greens on government policy.
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Rumbling in the background has been the scandal over Peter Murrell, the SNP’s former chief executive and husband of former leader Nicola Sturgeon, who faces criminal charges of embezzling party funds. While Yousaf has not been linked with the affair, he is seen as a Sturgeon protégé, and was the continuity candidate following her abrupt departure last year. His resignation is a blow to the party and a further boost to its opponents. The SNP now lags behind Labour in opinion polls for the first time in 10 years. Significant seat losses are predicted in the upcoming Westminster elections, and these could well be exacerbated by the current chaos.
There is support within the party for Kate Forbes, who narrowly lost last year’s leadership contest. Other candidates, such as former leader John Swinney, perhaps as an interim appointee, may also emerge. A deal with the Greens could yet allow the government to continue in office.
Whoever wins faces a difficult task in restoring a sense of stability and purpose to a party whose singular identification with the goal of independence has weakened due to a string of controversies. Labour, meanwhile, will be looking at the opportunity to win back seats to boost its majority in the next UK parliament. All is not lost for the SNP, with support for independence still at over 40 per cent in the polls. But it must find a way to rebuild and refocus on its goal of another referendum for an independent Scotland.