Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN), professes himself confident his moment is coming. French voters, he believes, in the two rounds of elections starting on Sunday will give the RN the 289-seat National Assembly absolute majority which will force President Macron to share power with him as prime minister in a fractious “cohabitation”.
Polls suggest RN is not there yet. However, with 34 per cent support, it is significantly out in front of the broad left alliance, the Nouveau Front Populaire (28 per cent), with Macron’s Ensemble (Together) alliance trailing on 20 per cent.
Macron’s hubristic gamble in calling the election to challenge the far-right “bluff” has – it appears – completely failed, showing no significant effect on voter sentiment. A stalemate in parliament looks likely with left, centre and right-wing opposition parties adamant they will not back Bardella’s nomination. The latter has indicated he would not accept a nomination without a guaranteed parliamentary majority that would allow him to weather the storms that RN policies will undoubtedly unleash. Proving the party is fit and competent to govern ahead of the real prize, the 2027 presidential election, will not be made easy.
Macron’s presidential prerogative in naming a prime minister will place him in a real dilemma. Unable constitutionally to call another legislative election for 12 months, he may be forced to try to put together a technocratic government under a renowned public figure. Yet, without a parliamentary majority, that is likely to be deeply unstable and unable to implement budgets or reform.
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The RN remains dangerous and divisive. Having spent the last ten years preparing for this moment, detoxifying the party from its overtly racist roots, it is still campaigning under the flags of Islamophobia and xenophobia. It intends to “to combat Islamist ideologies” with measures to ease the closing of mosques and the deportation of imams deemed to be radicalised. It also wants to ban clothing, including veils, that constitute” ostentatious affirmations” of Islamist ideology.
Bardella has said he will ban French citizens with dual nationalities from sensitive public postings and will end birthright citizenship for people born in France to foreign parents. There can be no doubt that France’s six million Muslim citizens have every reason to fear an RN government.
And so do fellow EU states which could see installed in government a party deeply opposed to European integration, determined to claw back “French” funds from the EU budget, vehemently opposed to the union’s green deal and asylum seeker burden-sharing, and strongly sympathetic to Russia over Ukraine. An awful lot is at stake as a state which has been at the centre of the EU’s development goes to the polls.