Iran’s demoralised, repressed electorate has voted with its feet – more and more voters, imply walking away from polling stations without casting a valid vote, convinced their exercise of the franchise will make no difference in candidate fields purged of all but mullah loyalists. The 2021 presidential election saw less than half (48 per cent) turn out for hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, whose death last month in a helicopter crash precipitated Friday’s poll on his replacement. In this year’s parliamentary election only 41 per cent voted.
On Friday 60 per cent of the country did not vote, despite the severe admonition from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that a high turnout was an “absolute necessity” and that the country’s “durability, stability, honour and dignity in the world” depended on the people’s votes.
On Friday they will vote again in a run-off that pitches Khamenei ally Saeed Jalili, an ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator, who leads the ultra-right Paydari party, against a lone reformist who surprised all by passing the mullahs’ candidate vetting process. The liberal – a relative term in Iran – Masoud Pezeshkian is a cardiac surgeon and veteran of the Iran-Iraq war who served as an MP and health minister. He is also a member of the Azeri ethnic minority.
Despite the low turnout, Pezeshkian, who has spoken of the need to reopen talks with the US on Iran’s sanctioned nuclear programme, and who favours easing compulsory hijab-wearing, won a strong 42 per cent (10.4 million votes). Jalili took 39 per cent, while a third candidate, another hardliner, managed 14 per cent. It is far from clear that all the latter’s votes will switch to Jalili in the second round despite their political alignment, and Pezeshkian will be hoping that a drive to persuade young people that their votes can make a difference will push him over the line.
A reformist victory will not change Iran overnight. But even if Pezeshkian does not win, the election is an important straw in the wind. Under the surface a new, democratic Iran is building. Its time may be coming.