What may prove to be a defining week in American history draws to a close with the trajectory of the presidential race shifting significantly in favour of Donald Trump. It is a measure of the sheer unpredictability and uncertainty of the current political moment that it could shift again within a matter of days.
Closing the Republican national convention in Milwaukee on Thursday, Trump addressed an exultant party that is now confident of victory in November. In the wake of last Saturday’s attempt on his life at a Pennsylvania rally, the former president accepted the acclaim of supporters who regard his survival as further evidence that providence is on their side.
In his first public statement since the assassination attempt, Trump at first adopted the more conciliatory tone which had been flagged in the immediate aftermath of the shooting. But as his lengthy speech wore on, he returned to more familiar themes of resentment and retribution.
Even before the end of the convention, attention was returning to the turmoil in the Democratic party, where unease has turned to panic over the declining electoral prospects of Joe Biden, who, as things stand, appears to be heading for certain defeat.
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Biden’s supporters point with some justification to the fact that there have only been marginal changes in national polls since the first presidential debate three weeks ago. But his support continues to slide in the swing states that will decide the election. And new data this week suggests that supposedly dependable Democratic states like Virginia are now coming into play. If Biden stays in the contest, Democrats fear a once tight race could turn into a Republican landslide.
The Biden camp’s argument that the move to replace him is driven by elites is undermined by the fact that two thirds of Democrats believe he should stand down. With the pressure on the president continuing to ratchet up, his withdrawal looks increasingly inevitable. Were that to happen, it would set in train a series of events unprecedented in modern US politics, as the party attempts to agree on a new nominee so close to the election.
Meanwhile, Trump’s selection of Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate is further evidence of rising Republican confidence in its populist message. It also suggests a second Trump term, if it happens, will be more aggressively ideological and more effective in prosecuting policies that include mass deportations of immigrants, protectionist tariffs and an isolationist foreign policy. Alongside this is the overt menace of the rhetoric emanating from a now completely Trumpian Republican party, with its promises of vengeance against political enemies and its willingness to radically remake American institutions.