The US presidential race is normally a marathon rather than a sprint. Contenders spend two years building a campaign team, raising money, navigating the primaries and then facing off against the other party’s candidate in the general election.
From today, Kamala Harris has exactly 100 days to win the presidency, following her anointment this week as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Harris is now surfing the huge wave of relief and renewed excitement which has swept across her party since Joe Biden’s withdrawal last Sunday. Money is pouring in from donors at record-breaking levels, “Kamalamentum” memes are flooding the internet, and the anti-Trump media has rowed in behind her with a fervour which the former senator from California has never experienced before.
It is too early to draw any conclusions, but early polling suggests Harris has already regained the ground lost by Biden since his disastrous debate performance in June. That still leaves her marginally trailing Trump in the national vote as well as in swing states, but it does mean an election which seemed to be slipping out of reach is competitive once more for the Democrats.
Both parties will now battle to define Harris for the many voters who do not yet have a fixed sense of who she is. Republicans will be optimistic that a politician from a liberal coastal city who is closely associated with the current administration’s unpopular record, particularly on immigration, provides ample ammunition for their assault. Trump and his supporters will also be happy to trade in racist and misogynistic dog whistles against the first woman of colour to be nominated by a major party. Both tactics, unfortunately, have some chance of success.
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Meanwhile, in their enthusiasm, many Democrats seem to have conveniently forgotten the tepid response which Harris received when she ran for the party’s 2020 nomination, and the negative media coverage of the first two years of her vice-presidency. The truth is that the current surge of support is largely due to the simple fact that she is not Joe Biden. That will surely ebb.
Harris does bring strengths to the contest. A more assured performance over the last few months saw her emerge as one of the Biden campaign’s best surrogates, while she has been a powerful voice in defence of abortion rights. And she is well-equipped to prosecute the case that her opponent is unfit for office.
But to have a chance of winning on November 5th, she will need to offer something Biden signally did not: a vision for the future that is attractive in swing states without alienating the Democratic base.
The task is not impossible, but it will require a level of political dexterity beyond anything Harris has demonstrated in her career so far.