This week’s announcement by Michael Ring that he will not contest his Mayo seat at the next election brings to 15 the number of Fine Gael TDs who are retiring from politics, with suggestions there may be one or two more yet to come. That is close to half the party’s current Dáil complement and represents the largest number of voluntary departures from a single parliamentary party since the great Fianna Fáil exodus of 2011. Among the retirees are such substantial figures as Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and Richard Bruton. Also included are formidable vote-getters like Paul Kehoe, Brendan Griffin and Ring himself.
History shows that incumbency and name recognition can confer a significant political advantage at election time, so the departures pose an extra challenge for Simon Harris as he seeks to lead Fine Gael into an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in office. Should he be successful, and if that government serves a full term, that would see the party continuously in power for 18 years, breaking the record set by Éamon de Valera’s Fianna Fáil between 1932 and 1948.
But success brings its own problems. Just a few months ago, Fine Gael, under Harris’s predecessor Varadkar, looked like a party running on fumes, an impression reinforced by the steady drip of retirement announcements which had already begun. With the party now reinvigorated and performing better in opinion polls, it might actually be to its advantage to present a fresh slate of younger candidates, many coming off strong performances in June’s local elections. That calculation may be visible in candidate selection in constituencies such as Cork South Central, where recently elected councillors have been preferred to more seasoned politicians with national profiles.
Whether or not that is the strategy – and there are rumours of the return of familiar names such as Mairead McGuinness and Michelle Mulherin -– one thing is clear. The Fine Gael of the next Dáil will look very different from the current one. A baton is being passed. But, as any relay runner will attest, passing the baton can be a hazardous task.