The most incongruous image emanating from Europe this summer, as it was experiencing unrelenting heatwaves, was a video on social media of tourists in Athens hanging out by the pool as huge smoke plumes from out-of-control wildfires gathered overhead.
It seemed to reflect society’s indifference to, or lack of understanding of, the consequences of extreme weather, increasingly exacerbated by an overheating world. They were in the cauldron; a Europe warming at twice the rate of any other continent where temperatures in excess of 40 degrees are the summer norm across a vast area bordering the Mediterranean.
The consequences cannot be ignored if European countries are to retain as much as possible of their current levels of prosperity and wellbeing. The health impacts of all this requires a level of climate adaptation, to respond to inevitable impacts and to protect the most vulnerable citizens, that is largely absent at present.
A recent study in The Lancet Public Health predicts heat deaths in Europe could triple this century, with the numbers rising disproportionately in southern European countries, with overall heat-deaths rising from 43,729 to 128,809 a year. This could pose “unprecedented challenges” to public health systems.
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It applies to all European countries to varying degrees. It shows Ireland is likely to see almost a doubling of cold-related deaths in winter (from 3,974 at present to 7,696), and close to a 20-fold increase in heat-related deaths (from 30 to 563) in summer, where average temperatures are forecast to increase by 3 degrees. Ireland is predicted to see large increases in weather-related deaths in part due to its rapidly ageing population.
Cold kills more people than heat in Europe but if global warming reaches a catastrophic 3 or 4 degrees the rise in heat deaths will greatly outstrip a fall in cold deaths.
The findings highlight the need to strengthen policies to limit global warming to protect vulnerable regions and members of society. Europe has experienced some of its hottest summers recently. This has coincided with high mortality rates and accident and emergency departments coming under immense pressure where sustained heatwaves occur.
Separate research by climate scientists at Maynooth University indicates extreme heat events in Ireland will become more frequent, involve higher temperatures and be more widespread due to human-caused global warming “with profound implications for public health, agriculture, economic stability and infrastructure resilience”.
We may be experiencing a prolonged cooler and wetter period of late, but debilitating heat will inevitably return in some guise. Ireland is not adequately prepared for the systemic challenges it will bring.