The latest population figures from the Central Statistics Office are striking, showing an increase of close to 100,000 in the year to April in the number of people living in the State to reach 5.38 million. In broad terms, one fifth of this rise was due to the so-called natural increases of births over deaths, while the rest resulted from immigration again sharply exceeding emigration.
Behind these figures lie the key economic and social issues facing Ireland and the key current issues of political debate. Whether it is housing, health, childcare or education, the core issue is the rising size of the population. And of course population is being driven by the most divisive issue of all – immigration, which, at 149,200 last year, reached its highest level for 17 years.
The Irish population has always been heavily influenced by net migration – the balance between those leaving and those coming to live here – a trend usually driven by economic factors.
Recently, two things have changed. The first is the extent of the economic boom since 2015, which has ratcheted up inward migration. The second is the jump in the number of those arriving here because they are escaping other countries, most notably the big influx from Ukraine.
These issues are linked – in one sense they both relate to Ireland’s emergence as a richer country. But they are also fundamentally different – the motivations of someone coming here to work in, say, the health service or a tech company are very different to an asylum seeker from Africa, or someone fleeting the war in Ukraine.
Ireland’s immigrant population, in the main, works and pays taxes. Non-Irish citizens account for one in five of the workforce.
Those arriving here due to emergencies in their own countries, on the other hand, may not be able to work, but deserve proper shelter and a clear process to decide whether they meet the rules to stay. In time some of these, too, will stay and enter the workforce.
So immigration raises some important but distinct issues. Dealing with those seeking shelter or asylum is a question of organisation, rules and fair process. And of meeting Ireland’s international responsibilities. Immigration to take up employment raises different considerations. Both are part of the wider pressure on housing and services, but their nature is fundamentally different.
There are big economic and social issues here, notably the need to build more houses and expand State services for a bigger population. There is a major job of national planning needed, but it must start from a clear-headed understanding of what is actually going on, rather than some woolly concept of immigration control. Ireland’s economic success – and social development – is based fundamentally on its openness. Losing sight of this would be a big mistake.