Even as he was appointed France’s latest prime minister there was speculation that Michel Barnier would not last in the job until Christmas. The appointment of the congenial and well-regarded ex-EU Brexit negotiator by president Emmanuel Macron may have been greeted with enthusiasm in Dublin and Brussels. In the National Assembly, however, there were few cheers for the veteran right-wing politician whose 47-strong party, Les Républicains, holds barely a sixth of the seats.
The recent election winners and the assembly’s largest group, the left-wing New Popular Front, denounced what it saw as a denial of democracy in the rejection of its candidate for the job. It promised not to serve in the new government or vote confidence in it. It will depend for its even brief survival on the support or abstention of so far non-committal Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN). Denying the latter power or influence had been the ostensible purpose of Macron’s ill-judged decision to call an early election. Now the RN, in effect, has the power of veto.
Barnier, four times a government minister and twice an EU commissioner, is at 73 the oldest premier in the history of modern France, and faces a challenge which looks more daunting than the Brexit talks. But he brings to the task a reputation as a patient, pragmatic bridge builder and listener. The EU institutions’ and member-states’ unity of purpose and willingness to march in disciplined lock step behind their negotiator owed much to his commitment to constant reassuring dialogue.
“Humility”, “determination”, and “respect for all the political groups represented” in parliament was how Barnier spoke yesterday of his approach, emphasising: “I did say all”. And that includes RN. He will, however, find some, to the left and the right, obdurate and difficult to deal with.
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Among the immediate tasks are preparing a budget to put the public finances in order and safeguarding Macron’s controversial and widely opposed raising of the retirement age. Surviving to Christmas may be pushing it.