Even by the standards of the political hothouse, the constant speculation about a general election is intense, incessant – and beginning to be a little wearing. In Leinster House, it is a constant background hum – even as the Dáil debates important legislation such as (last week) the massive Planning Bill and (next week) the Hate Crime Bill, the Finance Bill and the Social Welfare Bill.
The ability to call the election at a time of their choosing is an important advantage for any incumbent government. The choices left to the current Coalition are to hold the election within a matter of weeks – probably in the second half of November – or in February/March of next year. Despite various assurances from the leaders of the Government parties that they intend to go to the end of their term of office, the widespread expectation is that once a series of important bills are passed through the Oireachtas in the coming weeks, the Government will go to the country, proclaiming its work all but done and seeking a mandate for another five years.
Such an agreed course of action, however, requires the consent of all three Coalition parties. The Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, who has repeatedly said that he would like the Government to run until 2025, has an effective veto over an agreed end to the Coalition. True, it is the prerogative of Taoiseach Simon Harris alone to ask the President for a dissolution of the Dáil. But without Fianna Fáil’s co-operation, he will not get crucial budget legislation passed. And there is not much point in constructing a €10 billion giveaway as your last budget if you then turn around to voters and say: sorry folks, change of plan.
The two big Government parties are of course eyeing each other with some degree of suspicion, conscious that their candidates will be competing directly with one another. Fine Gael’s recent strength in the opinion polls gave some in Fianna Fáil pause to think about the wisdom of the rush to an autumn election. Against that, and in favour of an early poll, are the imminent budget giveaways and the continuing difficulties faced by the largest opposition party, Sinn Féin – which show no sign of abating in the short term.
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The one thing you never hear considered in the endless chatter about the election date is the national interest. Voter surveys indicate that the public are much less consumed by the question than are politicians. But the constant focus on the issue must be distracting from the work of government. This country faces very significant challenges in the years ahead. Can our economic model continue to flourish? How do we react to the changed security situation in Europe? How do we make public services work better for people, especially children in poverty? And so on. Those are the important questions. Whenever the election comes, that is what we should be talking about.