The UN climate talks in Azerbaijan had a lucky escape, securing a last-minute deal on climate finance for developing countries increasingly damaged by extreme weather events. It was perilously close to failure, which would have come at the wrong time geopolitically and undermined multilateralism more widely, as well as threatening climate action.
US president-elect Donald Trump, from a distance, dampened ambition as many countries know they -–inevitably – will have to cough up more on climate action as he yet again has promised to pull America out of the Paris Agreement.
Alarm about his re-election was overtaken by a foreboding sense that many sympathetic to Trump’s views were surfacing within Cop29 negotiating rooms. The absence of many global leaders, including those from many major countries who are the biggest emitters, added to the gloom.
Some leaders gathered in Baku could not hide their frustration. “What on earth are we doing in this gathering?” asked Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama, “What does it mean for the future of the world if the biggest polluters continue as usual?”
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The notable positives secured were a climate finance goal of $300 billion to be paid by wealthy countries annually by 2035 with a roadmap to move to $1.3 trillion. There was also a long overdue agreement on how carbon markets will operate with better transparency. Many vulnerable countries will have reluctantly backed the outcome, knowing it is not enough -– given, for example, Hurricane Helene alone could end up costing the US up to $250 billion in economic losses and damages.
A big flaw is failure to build on the ambition to transition away from fossil fuels agreed last year. This will dismay climate activists increasingly concerned by the sway fossil fuel lobbyists seem to have at Cops. On balance, there is enough to build momentum in the run-up to what was billed as a much more important Cop in Brazil next year, provided all the parties increase their ambition in setting revised national targets.