The findings of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll set the scene for what is likely to be a frantic final few days of the general election campaign.
Today’s findings present most obviously a challenge to the Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris. Judged by the results, Fine Gael has not run a campaign that has engaged and attracted voters. Rather, Harris, despite a frequently warm reception from voters on the streets and a campaign that was undoubtedly energetic, has seen individual missteps and instances of disharmony reach a huge audience through the social media channels that he has himself proved so adept at using. Having your every engagement filmed can be a double-edged sword.
Harris now faces into the televised leaders’ debate tomorrow evening under extreme political pressure and needing a strong performance to change minds and win votes. That has happened before in such debates. But it is a tall order.
The more low-key style of the Fianna Fáil leader and Tánaiste Micheál Martin – who never fails to mention that he deals in “substance” not style – has found favour with many voters perhaps worried about the future should the incoming administration of Donald Trump in the United States implement policies that are damaging to Ireland’s interests.
If so, this is quite the coup. Martin’s party has itself made plenty of lavish promises in recent weeks about how it will spend resources in the years ahead. However, he did tell The Irish Times Inside Politics podcast on Friday that if the external environment changed, then any future government would have to review its spending commitments. It is something that voters need to hear more about from all parties in the coming days.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has seen her party stabilise its support during this campaign after a period of intense political adversity. The three biggest parties are all within a couple of points of each other. Depending on the last few days, McDonald could yet be leading the largest party in the next Dáil, though her path to government is harder to see. Like her two adversaries, tomorrow night’s debate now assumes an outsize importance for the Sinn Féin leader.
For the smaller parties, the final few days represent the last opportunity to boost the profile of candidates. They will be mindful of the brutal arithmetic of the Irish election system, which means that a handful of votes can be the difference between triumph and failure. When candidates tell voters at the doorsteps that their votes can make all the difference, they are often right.
After a relatively settled first fortnight, today’s poll results completely reorient the trajectory of the final few days of the campaign. The competition to lead the next government will once again go down to the wire.