Talks on the formation of a new government are set to gather pace this week. Reports suggest that progress has been made between the two parties set to be the central players – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – and there appear to be no insurmountable barriers to doing a deal. The Regional Independents Group looks set to form the third leg of the coalition, though the precise shape of its participation remains to be worked out. There are difficult issues still to be agreed, but no reasons for undue delay.
The next programme for government will be an important document. The risk is that it turns into a series of bland compromises, covering off the various policy areas and making a string of commitments to get everyone on board, without any prioritisation, realistic costings, or clear ideas of how progress is to actually be delivered. If this is the case, the next coalition is storing up trouble for itself.
It is reasonable for a new government programme to have agreed targets across the main policy areas. But it must also clearly communicate priorities. Implicit in this must be a recognition that resources are not limitless.
Housing, homelessness and health are obvious priority areas. So is climate and public transport, both of which may be contentious in the talks. There may be a few more – notably disability.
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Prioritisation is important not only politically but also because the Government may see resources tightening during its term – after all the endless upward march in corporation tax will not continue forever. Meanwhile, bills from an ageing population and from climate change will take a financial toll. The choices facing the next government may be sharper than what faced the outgoing one and the trade-offs more obvious.
To be credible, the new programme needs to be clear about what happens if the State finances do get tighter. And significant leeway needs to be left in the national finances to cope with this risk and the unpredictability of an uncertain world. To date, too much of what may be temporary tax revenues are being spent.
The new programme for government must also set out a path to tackle the problems of delivery which have bedevilled the outgoing administration. There is a need for a new start in planning and delivering major projects as well as managing State interventions in vital areas like housing. And delivery of public services needs to become much more effective across the board.
All the answers will not be contained in a programme drawn up in a few weeks, but it needs to outline a pathway to do this and, crucially, communicate a new energy. To succeed, the two big parties need to realise that while they oversaw significant economic growth and healthy finances, they were re-elected despite their record on delivery, not because of it.