The ball is now in Russia’s court, US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said. The focus of efforts to bring temporary peace to Ukraine has switched to Moscow with the agreement, brokered by Rubio in Saudi Arabia, to a 30-day ceasefire, should President Vladimir Putin reciprocate.
It marks a welcome U-turn in US-Ukraine relations following President Trump’s bullying White House meeting with President Zelenskiy two weeks ago. Zelenskiy says an “important element” in the talks was the US commitment to resume military and intelligence assistance. Ukraine indicated its willingness to sign a minerals deal under which it will contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of mineral sales to a fund in which the US will have a big stake.
Much like phase one of the Gaza truce, the ceasefire is the easy bit on the path to a sustainable peace. Though a welcome first step that will save lives, the critical ingredients of a lasting peace remain unaddressed, to be broached in a second round. There are no tentative concessions on offer and declared red lines aplenty.
Will the temporarily frozen battle lines end up marking permanent Russian gains? What of Crimea, Kursk and Donbass? Will Moscow recognise Kyiv’s legitimacy? Will Russia accept European, if not Nato, troops on the ground to guarantee a permanent peace? Will the US provide a backstop to that guarantee beyond a vague insistence that Russia would not dare threaten its “thousands” of mine concession workers? Would Ukraine agree to demilitarise and renounce joining Nato, central demands from Moscow?
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Hints from Moscow suggest an openness to ceasefire talks, but also some wariness. It may suit Putin to appear willing to accept the first phase of the Trump process, which involves no concessions from Moscow, and then to dig in at the second stage, when substantive issues are on the table, threatening a quick return to fighting.
Will we then see Trump willing to arm-twist Putin as he has Zelenskiy? Not on current form.
