It comes as no surprise that the Economic and Social Research Institute is predicting that the number of home completions this year will rise only modestly to 34,000, from just over 30,300 last year. The Minister for Housing, James Browne, was forced to concede yesterday that reaching the target of 41,000 for this year would be very challenging. And to meet the Government target of 303,000 houses between 2025 and 2030, further sharp increases would be needed in subsequent years.
The Government will be all too aware of the “Groundhog Day” nature of the housing debate, with targets consistently being missed. The Opposition parties are trying to take advantage by organising a day of protest next month – it remains to be seen what proposals they will put forward.
The Government is exposed here because of the failure of the previous administration and the denial of reality in the general election campaign, when outgoing ministers insisted that close to 40,000 homes would be built last year.
In addressing all this, the Government needs to accept that there are no quick fixes. Tinkering around with policy is at best pointless and at worst counter-productive. Longer-term solutions are the ones that count and the Government needs to get on with these if it is to see any meaningful results during its term.
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In this context, the move by the housing minister to extend the terms for which planning permissions apply in some cases seems sensible. At the moment developers can “time out” if hit with lengthy judicial review proceedings and have to reapply. Offering planning permissions extensions in some cases should help in terms of encouraging development and could be particularly helpful for apartment projects. It will provide some more certainty in the process.
Opposition complaints that it will encourage land hoarding need to be taken into account. The Residential Zoned Land Tax, due to encourage landowners to develop housing on land zoned for this purpose, is finally being introduced, even if it may need to be better focused to achieve the desired result. Both carrot and stick, in other words, are needed. Penalties, as well as incentives, need to be kept under review.
There are other problems in planning and viability which also need to be addressed, as well as the contentious issue of rent pressure zones. In tackling these, the Government needs to continue to build certainty for developers, as well as protecting renters and giving hope to potential buyers. It is not an easy balance to strike.
State intervention, through a host of routes, is already enormous, but if the core issues of planning, utility provision and viability are not solved, then spending will not achieve the desired results. The Government will not want to go back to basics, but really it has no choice.
