SUPPORTERS OF Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai feel abandoned following his unavoidable decision to withdraw from tomorrow's run-off presidential election against Robert Mugabe, who is set to proclaim himself the winner by default.
It is a victory for political terror and violence which the rest of southern Africa and the wider world seem powerless to change, many believe. This is an extraordinarily depressing state of affairs. To show it is not true, Zimbabweans need neighbouring states and peoples, working with international organisations, to demonstrate a determined resolve in resisting this assault on democracy.
They have various ways of doing so, including mediation, economic and financial sanctions, and isolation of the Mugabe regime. More direct political or military intervention, as called for yesterday by Mr Tsvangirai, appears unrealistic until there is an African will for it. But it could come to that if the regime persists in rejecting international pressure and if Zimbabwe's appalling economic crisis spills over more substantially on to its neighbours. Already three million people have emigrated, mainly to South Africa. And the regime's intransigence is an intolerable rebuke to the definite, if still uneven trend towards a more thorough-going democratisation of politics in southern Africa.
That can readily be seen in statements denouncing what has been happening from Tanzania, Swaziland and Angola on behalf of the Southern African Development Community. Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique have been more muted in their criticism. But in South Africa President Thabo Mbeki's accommodating line towards Mr Mugabe has been bypassed by a far more outspoken denunciation from Mr Mbeki's presumed successor Jacob Zuma. Significantly China and Russia went along with the United Nations Security Council statement that free and fair elections are not possible.
Yesterday's meeting of the SADC leadership reflects this turmoil, but as yet there is little sign of the radical diplomacy required to resolve the crisis. It is one thing to criticise the course of events in Zimbabwe, quite another to isolate the regime effectively. Mediation would include efforts to form a national unity or coalition government, but that appears a step too far for the main protagonists and their supporters. Rerunning the elections under international peacekeeping supervision looks unacceptable to Mr Mugabe. Non-recognition, allied to sanctions may be more effective, but would deepen the suffering of Zimbabwe's people.
Signs of division within the Mugabe regime suggest such international engagement is capable of engineering change. Yesterday Mr Mugabe said he remains open to talks with the opposition, while those interrogating Mr Tsvangirai's deputy, Tendai Biti, are keen to explore amnesty offers he may have made to regime leaders if they switch loyalties. There is tension between security hardliners and those who see the regime is doomed to collapse without a compromise. Such divisions should intensify pressure to rescue Zimbabweans from their trauma.