Zimbabwe looks with trepidation to the result of its presidential election. It also clings to the hope that it may regain some of the relative prosperity it once enjoyed.
Its president, Mr Robert Mugabe, who once claimed credit for that prosperity, has fought the toughest electoral battle of his career in an attempt to stave off the challenge of the opposition leader, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai.
It has been a tough election physically as well as metaphorically. Reports of intimidation and extreme violence have been a feature of the campaign. Rules at polling stations have been changed in an effort to hamper opposition voters. Declan Walsh, who is covering the campaign for this newspaper, has uncovered evidence of torture.
Under normal circumstances, Mr Mugabe could be expected to face an overwhelming defeat. Zimbabwe's economy is in a downward spiral. There are massive fuel shortages. Victoria Falls, once the tourist capital of Africa, has been reduced to the status of a ghost town.
While much attention has been given to the plight of white farmers, it should be remembered also that almost 75 per cent of the population now live in abject poverty. It is the indigenous African inhabitants who are suffering most in the economic and political mess in which the country now finds itself.
It is these same people who hold the power of the ballot box. If this power is to be taken from them, the consequences, not only for Zimbabwe but for the whole of Southern Africa, could be disastrous. Widespread violence could break out if it becomes obvious that Mr Mugabe has stolen the election.
Against this background, the Western powers can do little but sit and watch. The attempts by the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, to get the Commonwealth to take action, not only reinforced its stereotype as a futile talking shop, but created serious black-white divisions within the organisation. The one good thing to emerge from the current crisis is that Zimbabwe now possesses a vigorous democratic opposition. Rigging the election count will not change that..