Election may be more closely fought than many think

The Fianna Fáil plan of campaign for the election in eight months' time kicked off with the publication of the Estimates on Thursday…

The Fianna Fáil plan of campaign for the election in eight months' time kicked off with the publication of the Estimates on Thursday. With so much money at the Government's disposal there was not a lot the Opposition could say without casting themselves in a negative light. It was an indication of just how tough the election campaign is going to be for the alternative government.

The substantial increase in public spending for next year disclosed in the Estimates represents just the first instalment of good news from the Government. It will be quickly followed by tax cuts and welfare increases in next month's Budget and that in turn will be followed by the announcement of massive infrastructural projects in the National Development Plan in January.

Just to reinforce the feelgood factor, the bulk of the SSIA money will come on stream in the early months of 2007 and the Taoiseach may get a bit of icing on the cake if a powersharing Executive in the North is finally established on March 26th as planned.

One of the few weapons in the Opposition's armoury was the claim that the Government was intent on a pre-election splurge to buy votes but Minister for Finance Brian Cowen moved cleverly to try to neutralise that allegation. In a very downbeat presentation of the Estimates he maintained that his plans were "fiscally sustainable, economically appropriate and politically responsible."

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Fine Gael's Richard Bruton tried to counter the political impact of the billions being spent by the Minister by claiming that the net effect of the Estimates would be to increase both spending and taxation while failing to deliver the improved public services from the resources which are being provided by Irish workers.

This theme of the taxpayer not getting value for money is something that Mr Bruton has been hammering away at for the past three years. While it has certainly had some impact the effects seem to have been wearing off. Finding a way of getting the message across in the face of the tidal wave of money being spent over the next few months will be a tall order.

Mr Cowen has consciously tried to avoid the appearance of being cocky or complacent. In particular he has been anxious to avoid comparisons with his predecessor, Charlie McCreevy, who played a key role in the last election. While Mr McCreevy's exuberant style helped bring Fianna Fáil to the verge of an overall majority, it prompted the post-election hangover which led to the Fianna Fáil slump in the European and local elections two years later.

Mr Cowen is determined to play the forthcoming election with a much straighter face, although he is in danger of going too far. The Estimates press conference on Thursday was so lacking in sparkle that many journalists left well before the end. There is a fine line between appearing responsible and being downright boring.

Still, if Mr Cowen is determined to keep a stern appearance, most of his Fianna Fáil colleagues are finding it hard to contain their high spirits. From a position before the summer where many of them believed their seats were in danger, they now sense that they are on a roll. The series of planned events in the long run-in to the election, beginning with the Estimates, is designed to reinforce an already strong position.

What nobody in the Government or Opposition can know, of course, is what unplanned events may arise between now and next May and what impact, if any, such events may have. The events of last September relating to the Taoiseach's personal finances were a bolt from the blue and the dramatic poll increase afterwards was an even bigger shock to all sides.

There is now a good chance that the Taoiseach will be called to give evidence to the Mahon tribunal in the run-up to the election. Somewhat surprisingly the tribunal was given the go-ahead by the Supreme Court a week ago to begin public hearings in January into the Quarryvale episode and the allegations made by Tom Gilmartin.

The Cork property developer, Owen O'Callaghan, had held up these hearings by going to the courts and even though the Supreme Court has yet to hear a final appeal on the issue, it has sanctioned the start of hearings. With so many witnesses on the list it is not clear if Mr Ahern will be called before the election and even if he is what impact his evidence will have.

Still, the very fact that he is being called has introduced an element of uncertainty that was not there before. Other events will inevitably come out of the blue between now and next May and the election is certainly not the foregone conclusion many are now forecasting. The TNS/mrbi poll of the Wexford constituency for TG4 was an indication that the battle may be much more closely fought than many imagine.

One of the unknown factors is how the voters will react when they are asked to give Fianna Fáil its sixth successive term after an election since 1987 (the 1994/97 rainbow government was not the product of an election). One of the strongest arguments the alternative government has is that the country is in danger of becoming virtually a one-party state.

It was that argument that brought Eamon de Valera's 16 years of uninterrupted power to an end in 1948 and it cost Jack Lynch the election in 1973. Neither John A. Costello nor Liam Cosgrave were nearly as popular as the men they replaced in office, but the voters decided change was necessary.

Whether that will happen next year or the electorate will "keep a hold of nurse for fear of finding something worse" will be critical in deciding the outcome.