There is no clear agreement in postmodern Ireland about how to mark St Patrick's Day. In country areas old traditions endure. The bands will turn out. The shamrock sellers will turn their brief profit. Church-goers will sing the traditional hymns and hear the traditional homily on the patron saint. Dublin and other cities will stage tourist-oriented events. Many urban dwellers will avail of the long weekend to take a break in the country or by the sea.
One way or another, St Patrick's Day 2002 - or St Patrick's Festival as it is latterly designated - is going to be relatively muted. In 2001 it was a non-event because of the foot-and-mouth crisis. This year, at best, tourism interests are hoping to see the national holiday marking a recovery. There are mixed reports from around the country but numbers of visitors and bookings are well short of the late 1990s.
Tourist industry sources are counselling against undue pessimism even though hotels and other facilities are not fully booked. The wave of cancellations which followed the September 11th attacks in the United States could not be rolled back, they say. And preliminary inquiries for 2002 suggest that next year will see a strong recovery.
The reality is that the world is a much more problematic place than it was last March 17th. The economic slide which was beginning to make itself felt this time last year has taken a heavy toll. September 11th pushed the world airline and tourism business into crisis. War in Afghanistan has been followed by an intensification of the Arab-Israeli conflict. President Bush has threatened action against "rogue states," beginning probably with Iraq.
The certainties around which the modern, commercialised celebration of St Patrick's feast-day have been built - continued economic growth and easy, safe travel - cannot be taken for granted as readily as in the past. Traditionalists may feel this offers an opportunity to rediscover the deeper significance of the saint's feast and of his life. It is a laudable proposition but it is unlikely to be realised. For the great majority of Irish people, any spiritual or instructive dimension to St Patrick's Day has long been sublimated by commerce and alcohol.
It is at best, perhaps, a rite of the Irish spring, an occasion to mark the lengthening of the days and to celebrate the survival of another winter with fireworks for the kids and a night out. Little enough to do with St Patrick, perhaps. But nothing wrong with it either - in moderation. Enjoy the weekend.