The most important political achievement of Ireland's current presidency of the European Union so far has been to convince its partners that negotiations on completing the constitutional treaty, which collapsed last December, should be revived sooner rather than later in the interests of all concerned.
Effectively this means during the Irish presidency, either in April or possibly in June. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern has put a great deal of effort into this work. But while there has been plenty of welcoming rhetoric there has been little real evidence of compromise. This is why the latest indication that the German government is now willing to do so is significant.
Mr Ahern must decide whether there is sufficient political will and evidence of movement to reconvene the talks at a summit in Brussels later this month. It is a risky business, for him and the EU as a whole. Another failure would be very damaging. There can be no certainty of success. It will be a difficult judgment call.
There was a flurry of speculation yesterday that Germany has opened up the prospect of a compromise which could resolve the negotiating impasse. A European affairs spokesman for the Greens, junior coalition partners in the German government, said one proposal floated by Irish officials would not be rejected by them. Instead of a double majority consisting of 50 per cent of EU states comprising 60 per cent of its overall population, as set out in the draft constitutional treaty, it would require 55 per cent in both cases to pass EU legislation.
Some states said they could accept this yesterday, while others resisted it. That is less important than whether the German statement indicates an overall willingness to find a compromise. France and Germany insist a double majority is necessary, while Spain and Poland reject it, preferring the weighted voting formula agreed at Nice. Poland may be ready to talk about a compromise on this, the most important disagreement about the treaty. The Spanish prime minister, Mr Aznar, continued to hold to his position ahead of general elections next weekend. Many diplomats believe the most uncertain figure involved is President Chirac of France. Mr Ahern will have a crucial meeting with him on March 22nd, just after regional elections there.
According to one Irish official "our judgment on whether a deal is possible will be made at the 11th hour, just before the summit", following this meeting in Paris. It will fall to Mr Ahern to decide whether to put forward a formula he thinks is capable of finding a compromise. Given the goodwill built up over the last two months and the widespread respect for his political judgment, he has a good chance of finding a workable one if more states say they would support the effort with substantive compromises. Mr Ahern will have to propose a formula he believes can succeed. He should not be too cautious in making that call. His confidence of success would change the negotiating dynamics for all involved. That is what political leadership is all about.