The Government parties will be greatly heartened by the results of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which shows that the January lead enjoyed by Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, as a possible alternative government, has been halved. With a general election expected within the next two months, support for a continuation of the present rainbow coalition of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left has hardened and Fine Gael, in particular, has benefited from a surge in public support.
In spite of the upturn in the fortunes of the Government parties however, the political advantage still lies with Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats. That combination is the choice favoured by 43 per cent of the electorate, with 37 per cent opting for a continuation of the present coalition. But there is no disguising the fact that the gap between the alternative government arrangements is closing as people begin to think seriously about the future and the political parties gear up for the election. Apart from public preferences on the composition of the next government, support for the various political parties has also shifted significantly. The combined strength of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats has dropped three points to 51 per cent, while that of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left has grown by four points to 43 per cent. The current gap of eight points contrasts with a gap of 15 points last January and 21 points in the previous December.
Public satisfaction with the Government also continues to improve in the aftermath of a generous budget and in the context of an economy which continues to lead the European Union growth charts. Falling unemployment levels, higher consumer spending and increasing job opportunities appear to be contributing to a "feel good" factor which is generating support for the status quo. With the general election already unofficially under way, the percentage of "don't knows" has fallen from 17 to 15 per cent and these voters have gravitated towards the Government parties. The degree of voter volatility is so great, however, that there is no certainty such a trend will continue. And an unexpected "banana skin" could throw the most carefully laid political strategy into confusion. The concerns of voters have remained fairly constant over the past number of months and the parties have already begun to focus on the issues they have identified as the most important. Top of the voters list is crime followed closely by unemployment. The drugs issue comes third, followed by taxation, poverty and Northern Ireland. Those matters which attract less than ten per cent public support are education, health, cost of living, water charges, housing/mortgages and farming.
For the first time in seven years, public support for Fine Gael has reached 30 per cent. And the Taoiseach, Mr John Bruton, has further reason to be delighted because his own personal satisfaction rating has reached 63 per cent, the highest of his political career, and only four points short of Ms Mary Harney, who heads the popularity stakes. Mr Bertie Ahern will have been disappointed by Fianna Fail's slippage of two points while he himself has been relegated to third place in the popularity ratings, followed closely by Mr Dick Spring. The inconclusive libel case taken by Mr Proinsias De Rossa against the Sunday Independent had no effect on Democratic Left and only a minimal impact on his own public satisfaction rating, which fell three points to 43 per cent. While it is not possible to determine accurately future voting intentions from these results, they will certainly encourage the Government parties in their political expectations. They make a pre summer general election almost inevitable and the electorate can expect a close run thing in the formation of the next government.