Future students of political science may well be faced with the following exam question: "Compare and contrast the first and second campaigns to secure the ratification of the Nice Treaty in Ireland." Alternatively, they could be asked to compare the campaigns for a No vote in two referendums, Deaglán de Bréadún
A battle royal looms: a titanic struggle with implications beyond measure. Although there was much defeatism in the Yes camp after the general election, the truth is that nobody can predict the result with confidence at this early stage.
Ratifying the treaty will be one of the first challenges to face the incoming government. Indeed, relevant Ministers from the outgoing Government, likely to bear a remarkable resemblance to the new regime, have already discussed the issue.
Whatever complacency may have existed on the Yes side last June has largely evaporated. The No camp knows this is the case. The No people stole a march on the Europhiles last time, but on this occasion the pro-Nice elements are forewarned, whatever about being forearmed.
Nice was the "nasty" subject in the general election campaign. Well-bred politicians largely avoided mentioning it: former Taoiseach John Bruton was a notable exception. There was a well-grounded fear in the political establishment that highlighting the treaty would be like dispensing political Viagra to the Greens and Sinn Féin, who were already sweeping up votes. While understanding this political reality, some of Ireland's EU partners nevertheless regret the absence of debate, which would have set the stage for this crucial referendum campaign.
The overall election result was not helpful from the pro-Nice standpoint. Fine Gael, the most unabashed evangelists for Europe over the past 40 years, has suffered a body-blow. While rumours of the party's death are greatly exaggerated, it will inevitably be licking its wounds for some time to come. We do not yet know the identity of the new leader or whether the winner will pay more than lip-service to ratifying the treaty. Fine Gael's abstention from the Forum on Europe may have hindered the ratification effort without yielding any clear benefit at the ballot-box.
Before the election the Taoiseach outlined some of his thinking at a public meeting of the forum in Ballymun. Mr Ahern is a passionate EU supporter who believes, like the good football fan he is, that it is better to be in the thick of things on the pitch than standing on the sidelines. He differentiated between the hardline Eurosceptics, who will vote No regardless of how the proposition is dressed up, and those who have serious doubts and fears on issues like neutrality.
Speaking to me at the time, he made it clear he was thinking in terms of an EU declaration to reassure voters that Ireland would not be dragged willy-nilly into some future military conflict. Such a declaration is due to emerge from the European summit at Seville. It has been dismissed in advance by the No camp on the basis that it will not be legally binding. However, it may have some psychological benefits for the pro-Nice campaign.
The indications are that neutrality may not be as big an issue this time. The Yes people have always claimed it had nothing to do with the treaty anyway. The Peace and Neutrality Alliance will be raising the slogan "For a democratic Europe, vote No to Nice", and the No camp generally can be relied on to criticise the Government for failing to abide by the result of last June's poll. This is already being dubbed "the resentment factor".
Last month's Irish Times/MRBI poll on Nice showed the two sides level at 32 per cent each, with 32 per cent don't-knows and 4 per cent not voting. Last time, the No lobby was dismissed by some as a rag-tag and bobtail that was unrepresentative of the Irish people. But whereas the Greens and Sinn Féin had only three TDs last time, now they have 11, and the number of anti-Nice Independents has also increased.
The don't-knows and the "soft" Eurosceptics must be the target audience for both sides in the second referendum, which will probably be held in October. Yes campaigners I spoke to this week were confident that prominent people in political and public life would take a high profile in the drive for ratification. No people, on the other hand, were sure that the political activists in the main parties would sit on their hands a second time, regardless of what their leaders were saying.
The No camp has been derided as an array of disparate elements, but the fact that so many people from left and right can find different reasons to be anti-Nice is a political advantage. Thoughtful Yes campaigners know they must build a similar broad-based "popular front" this time to be sure of success.
On the Yes side, leading activists admitted that the political parties did only "milk and water" campaigning last time and were reluctant to spend their precious funds with a general election looming.
Both sides will play on the fears of the electorate. They will be told that if they vote Yes, Irish democracy, neutrality and sovereignty will be swallowed in the maw of a European superstate. From the other side, voters will be warned that disastrous economic, political and diplomatic consequences will flow from a second treaty rejection. But the likelihood is that the side which shows the greatest degree of conviction, passion and belief in its own cause will win.
Deaglán de Bréadún is Foreign Affairs Correspondent of The Irish Times