A drumbeat of hostility against Iran, which built up in Washington this week, was capped by President Bush yesterday when he warned that the country's nuclear programme is a "grave national security concern" for the United States.
He said Iran wants to destroy Israel, but he still seeks a diplomatic solution to the developing crisis. Unfortunately, there are few options available for this without resorting to punitive sanctions and threats of force, which were openly hinted at by Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld this week. Condoleezza Rice said a nuclear-armed Iran would be hundreds of times more threatening to US interests in the Middle East.
Mr Bush spoke as EU foreign ministers met to consider the issue after compromise plans involving a Russian offer to process most of Iran's uranium failed to take wing because of US hostility. The International Atomic Energy Agency referred the matter to the UN Security Council on Wednesday, having concluded it was unable satisfactorily to verify Iran's peaceful intent. The dynamics and pace of these arguments eerily recall the build-up to the Iraq crisis in 2002-2003. "It looks so deja vu," commented Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. "I don't believe we should engage in something that might become a self-fulfilling prophecy."
His remark should serve as a warning that the Iran issue is about to become much more serious. If it does follow the Iraq pattern, it could be very dangerous indeed. Iran is a much larger and stronger power and has become even more so as a result of the Bush administration's own policies in the Middle East. They "have made Iran incalculably more powerful than it was before the invasion of Iraq", as the New York Times put it this week. It added that the administration has undermined international controls on nuclear proliferation with its "attempt to reward India for ignoring the rules and acquiring its own weapons". High oil prices, Iran's growing influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and the Bush administration's close association with Israeli policy bear out this account.
The frustration and difficulty of dealing with Iran must be clearly recognised. Germany, France and the United Kingdom have worked intensively on behalf of the EU for over a year in an effort to find a compromise with Tehran on its nuclear programme. This week's events show they have failed to find one, because Iran's leaders insist they are entitled to have a nuclear programme, including uranium enrichment. The issue has become bound up with Iranian nationalism, fanned by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's virulent anti-Israeli and anti-American rhetoric. This makes it very difficult to find a political compromise, even though many believe it is possible.
The effort to do so using diplomatic means must continue. The compromise floated this week by EU and IAEA leaders was strenuously opposed by the Bush administration. They should not be allowed to dictate the pace and terms of this dangerous escalation of tension.