The weekend's Fianna Fáil Ardfheis is designed to give heart to nervous election candidates, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
The pre-election party rally season has begun. Sinn Féin kicked off last weekend, Fianna Fáil will crowd into City West tonight and tomorrow. Next weekend the Green Party will hold theirs, followed a fortnight later by the PDs, Labour three weeks after that, and finally, Fine Gael, the subsequent weekend.
The parties have timed them to maximise their impact in the campaign for the local and European Parliament elections on June 11th. The ardfheiseanna and conferences attract guaranteed broadcasting and press coverage. For the larger parties there is no longer any pretence that these are policy-making forums: they are stage-managed events from which the parties have a good chance of projecting the image they want to put to voters.
Now almost 10 years as Fianna Fáil leader, and seven as Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern will be the star of the show.
The Gilmartin module of the Mahon Tribunal continues next week. So far it has not inflicted any serious political damage on him. Tomorrow night he will rally his troops for June's elections, and the events at Dublin Castle will appear as "noises off", scarcely audible above the cheering.
Indeed Fianna Fáil's Ardfheis this weekend has a new debate format which puts paid to any notion that party members are formulating policy. Ardfheiseanna typically contain dozens of motions praising the Taoiseach and ministers for their excellence and innovation. However, they also traditionally debate motions calling on ministers to do this or that, when in Government, or to adopt this or that policy, when in Opposition.
This time, however, the motions are replaced by questions. So, for example, instead of motions expressing views on the Middle East conflict, there is one asking: "Would the Minister for Foreign Affairs outline the Government's position on the Israeli-Palestinian situation?" Presumably he will.
Similarly, rather than having motions reflecting grassroots concern over the Hanly report on the hospital services, there is a question submitted by the Emyvale cumann in north Monaghan: "Will the Minister for Health explain the benefits that the Hanly report will bring to rural communities and the infrastructure that he will put in place to support this?" One presumes he will be glad to do so.
So, despite sessions on almost every area of public policy, this Fianna Fáil Ardfheis is not really about public policy at all. But it is about serious politics.
There are just three months to go before the party faces its most dreaded electoral test in over a decade. Fianna Fáil, according to opinion polls, has spent the last 18 months consistently at its lowest levels of voter support since it first entered the Dáil. An Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll last month put it at just 33 per cent, a rise from 30 per cent - its lowest-ever opinion poll figure - last September. These alarmingly low figures are no statistical blip: in September 2002 Fianna Fáil was at 34 per cent, the following month 36 per cent and in May 2003, 32 per cent.
Fianna Fáil won 39 per cent of the vote in the local authority elections of 1999, securing 23 extra local government seats with an increase of 0.1 percentage points.
The party won outright control of councils in Cavan, Galway, Louth, Mayo and Westmeath, and retained outright control of Clare, Laois, and North Tipperary councils.
That 39 per cent wasn't a great result. It got just under 40 per cent in Dáil elections in 1992 and 1997. It won 41.5 per cent in the May 2002 general election.
So even if it made a further gain to, say, 35 per cent before June, the party faces the prospect of losing local authority seats. If it loses its vote to Independents and the fringes, the damage may be contained. If, on the other hand, it lost a significant block of support to Sinn Féin it would probably lose more seats and would strengthen a party which is already a thorn in its side.
That's not all. In the European Parliament elections the constituency revision involving the loss of a seat each by the old four-seat Leinster and Munster constituencies means Fianna Fáil will struggle to retain its second seat in each of those constituencies.
So the loss of two European Parliament seats, together with a double-figure loss of local authority seats, is quite likely for Fianna Fáil, barring an unexpected surge in support before June.
This weekend is about minimising the effect of the setback. The Taoiseach has the prize of a third term in his sights, to be achieved in a general election in 2006 or early 2007. By then, it is hoped, the economy will be in good health, the Exchequer finances will allow for greater spending or even some tax cuts, and long-awaited road and rail projects will be completed, showing voters some results for all the spending.
In the meantime, Fianna Fáil's 800 local election candidates will go to the voters with assurances of a sound economic future and promises that the troubled decentralisation programme will go ahead, bringing some economic regeneration to regional centres.
Local authority candidates will be given prominence when it comes to choosing speakers during the "debates". Ambitious deputies eagerly awaiting the promised post-elections reshuffle will also be prominent. Ministers seeking further promotion and those seeking to prove that they are not ready for demotion yet will also put themselves on display.
A master of the art is Martin Cullen, who chose to give rural candidates their dose of good news yesterday, announcing the easing of restrictions on the building of one-off houses in the countryside.
The excellent timing gives him an answer to the ardfheis question to be considered tomorrow morning: "Could the Minister for the Environment tell the ardfheis of any plans he has to change the legislation relating to the construction of once-off housing?"
The Minister's plans will feature strongly in the election literature of rural Fianna Fáil candidates. As they face into a difficult campaign with no sign yet of a national lift in support, it's just what they wanted.