Among the collection of suicide notes that will be collated when Fine Gael finally does itself in will be the remarks made by Enda Kenny to The Irish Times, published last Saturday, on the presidential elections, writes Vincent Browne.
He said: "If (Mary McAleese) does decide to nominate herself (for the presidency), as is her right, as a non-party candidate, I would certainly give serious consideration that the Fine Gael party should decide not to oppose her... if President McAleese does decide to nominate herself she has done a very good job for the country and in those set of circumstances I would certainly go back to the parliamentary party and say 'this has changed the usual business'."
First about this changing "the usual business". It does nothing of the sort. Three outgoing presidents have stood for re-election: Seán T. Ó Ceallaigh in 1952, Éamon De Valera in 1966 and Patrick Hillery in 1983. All three nominated themselves. Nobody, for a moment, thought that if Mary McAleese were to be a candidate again she would do other than nominate herself. So the "usual business" emphatically has not changed.
That Éamon De Valera nominated himself in 1966 did not mean he was not the Fianna Fáil candidate. He was vigorously opposed by Fine Gael, whose candidate then, Tom O'Higgins, very nearly defeated him. When Seán T. Ó Ceallaigh and Patrick Hillery nominated themselves for re-election, they were unopposed. It is a virtual certainty that Mary McAleese will be opposed this coming November.
So the fig-leaf that Enda Kenny has offered for leaving the field open for Labour, Sinn Féin and (if they could only decide) the Greens, and, perhaps, a plethora of Independents, is bogus.
By abandoning the field now, Fine Gael leaves open to Labour and the others to "take on" the Fianna Fáil candidate (since Mary McAleese was the Fianna Fáil candidate the last time around, how could she be other than that in a contested election this time around?). Over a period of several months, running up to the presidential elections in November, Fine Gael will be on the sidelines, while Labour and Sinn Féin (and whoever else) take on the mantle of the Opposition.
And this will come on the back of the European and local elections which Enda Kenny, in that same interview, acknowledged will be another electoral disaster for Fine Gael. They could end up with no seat in the European Parliament and a greatly diminished representation on local councils.
The presidency used not to matter until Mary Robinson was elected in 1990. Presidents were expected to be bland and politically inconspicuous. She changed that and showed how it was possible for an astute and politically adept president to push a subtle agenda effectively and inspirationally. She showed the office had significance with her alignment with women's groups, human rights organisations and the disadvantaged, especially Travellers.
Mary McAleese has done the rounds with these organisations but she does not have Mary Robinson's cachet. Mary McAleese has reverted to the blandness that used to mark the office. Lots of "warmest welcomes" and "céad míle fáiltes". In her Christmas message lots of mumsy stuff about the Special Olympics and the observation that the recent elections in Northern Ireland are a cause of "great hope" that the new Assembly members will "work together". She noted the world faces "many ups and downs".
All the speeches are full of that insipidness. There was one speech in the United States last year that was considered forthright, where she raised the issue of excessive drinking. Forthright? This insipidness will do no harm to anybody. Mary McAleese is a safe president. There will be no constitutional crises, no public embarrassments, no need to pay much attention to what is going on in the Áras. And that is not an insignificant case for re-election.
But the possibilities of the office are far greater than she has proved capable of exploring. She might, for instance, say something on the verge of being controversial about our treatment of asylum-seekers, or the failure to provide accommodation for Travellers, or about the growing rich/poor gap, or about the unfairness in health caused by the two-tier system or that perhaps there was some correlation between poverty and crime and between poverty and drug abuse. Yes, she is constrained in what she can say as President and, theoretically, the president may speak only with the approval of the government, but Mary Robinson showed there was some elbow room.
Shouldn't the electorate be allowed the choice between a traditional president and an inspiring one? And with Fine Gael out of the way, can Labour or Sinn Féin or even the Greens resist taking on the mantle of the real Opposition? Mary McAleese is odds-on favourite to be re-elected and, in the process, Fine Gael is odds-on again to be the victim of the presidency.