Rumblings in the FF parliamentary party are a far cry from anything like a leadership challenge, writes NOEL WHELAN
IT IS over 18 years since the last Fianna Fáil leadership heave, and the party is not about to have another anytime soon.
There is an appreciable level of discontent on the Fianna Fáil backbenches but there has been unhappiness there for months. It would be surprising if there wasn’t given the scale of the economic crisis, the unpalatable decisions Government has had to take and the low levels at which the party has languished in the polls.
The rumbles intensified after the reshuffle, but were not caused by it.
The situation within the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party, however, is not approaching anything like a leadership challenge.
Current rumblings have more origins in the previous reshuffle of Ministers of State in April 2009 than this week’s events.
With the exception of the ever colourful and available Mattie McGrath, the backbenchers who went on the record to criticise what Brian Cowen has done or failed to do are mainly those whose biggest problem with Cowen is that he sacked them from junior ministerial office.
Máire Hoctor was a casualty of last year’s cull. In an at times incoherent interview with RTÉ’s Sean O’Rourke on Wednesday, she criticised the limited scale of what she curiously called “a shuffle rather than a reshuffle”. However, she went out of her way to express confidence in Cowen as leader.
In several interviews on Thursday John McGuinness, also sacked as a Minister for State last April, was more blunt in his criticisms of Cowen. As a serial critic of both the current and previous party leaders, McGuinness’s views carry little weight among his parliamentary party colleagues. Those who have ambitions to lead Fianna Fáil will have breathed a sigh of relief when McGuinness declined to specify, when pressed, who he believed should lead the party instead of Cowen. At this stage being championed by McGuinness would do an aspirant’s prospects grave harm.
The reshuffle did not improve the Taoiseach’s position among his parliamentary party: reshuffles seldom do.
Neither did it improve his position in the public mind since the public view of him is well fixed.
It certainly didn’t improve his reputation among political correspondents, many of whom claimed to be disappointed because they believed the changes would be more radical. If they did, they were clearly misinformed. This was inevitable since, apart perhaps from sharing some details with Mary Coughlan or Batt O’Keeffe, the Taoiseach kept his reshuffle plans extraordinarily close to his chest.
Looked at through the Taoiseach’s eyes, the reshuffle achieved three key objectives.
First, it eased Coughlan out of the Enterprise brief where she has had credibility issues. In Education and Skills she will get an opportunity to reset her ministerial career and retains the role of Tánaiste for now.
Second, the reshuffle stitched the Greens in more firmly, at least for another budget.
John Gormley has been freed from the bind in which he put himself by agreeing to rotate Ciarán Cuffe into his ministry. The Government majority on key Dáil votes this week was again surprisingly comfortable, but that situation may change after the three impending byelections are held. The majority is increasingly dependent on the Greens’ six votes so, as Cowen and his allies see it, giving the Greens an additional junior ministry about which to gloat at their Waterford conference this weekend is cheap at the price.
Cowen also probably sees the reshuffle as strengthening his and the Minister for Finance’s hand in seeking to deliver the core tenets of their economic policy for the next 18 months or so.
Tackling the structural deficit in the public finances, focusing on innovation and competitiveness and best positioning business and the labour force to exploit an international recovery is this Government’s route to employment recovery and not any magical jobs-creation mechanism.
Éamon Ó Cuív’s move to the newly-reconfigured, if peculiarly named, Department of Social Protection is about selecting someone to implement the welfare reform flagged last December, along with tax reform as a key component of next year’s budget.
The need to implement public sector cuts explains why Mary Harney was retained in the Department of Health, where massive savings in both pay and non-pay budgets are needed this year and next.
Dara Calleary’s promotion, albeit within the Minister of State ranks, is also significant. Straddling three big economic departments – Finance, the Taoiseach’s and Enterprise, Trade and Innovation – he is to play a supporting role, particularly in parliament and the media, on banking, budgetary matters and public sector reform. It can only be a supporting role because ultimately these key policies must be delivered by Cowen and Lenihan.
The Government has been scarred by mishaps since Christmas. The impact of the resignations of Willie O’Dea and Trevor Sargent is somewhat exaggerated in a political media increasingly obsessed with personality and processology. With the reshuffle over, attention should now switch back to big policy concerns. They don’t come much bigger than mopping up the banking mess.
Details of the transfer of the first tranche of big borrowers’ loans to Nama are imminent, as are the scale of losses at Anglo Irish Bank. The extent of Government involvement in the recapitalisation of the two big banks and the bailout of Anglo Irish Bank will be revealed shortly thereafter. Public reaction is likely to be horrendous.
Facing such challenges, Fianna Fáil doesn’t have the luxury of indulging in internal party distractions.