With two weeks to go until the general election on May 17th, support for Fianna Fáil is holding firm and the party is well placed to lead another coalition government or to form a minority government with the support of Independents, according to an Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. But a resurgence in support levels for both Fine Gael and the Labour Party, based on simulated ballot papers, threatens this equilibrium and gives the main opposition parties an opportunity to make further gains.
Traditionally, Fianna Fáil has tended to lose support during an election campaign. But this trend has not yet manifested itself and, by concentrating on detailed economic issues and the fruits of the boom years, party planners hope to avoid such a downturn. In particular, they hope to trade on the popularity of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, whose satisfaction rating with the public is more than double that of the Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan. The general level of satisfaction with the Coalition Government, which has increased by a single point to 57 per cent, is also a major advantage at this time and it is being traded on heavily. Fianna Fáil is acutely aware that many people throughout the State believe their standard of living has risen during the past five years and they are promising more of the same if returned to government. The Progressive Democrats may be disappointed by the findings. But the research was conducted before the Attorney General, Mr Michael McDowell excoriated the Taoiseach's €1 billion project at Campus Stadium Ireland and the Tánaiste, Ms Harney took a High Court action against Magill magazine. Those developments may lift the profile of the party and stem any loss of support to Fianna Fáil.
Fine Gael will be heartened by the bounce in the level of its support generated by mock ballot papers. Last February, immediately after the party's ard fheis, core support for the party fell to a low of 15 per cent. That has now recovered by a full five points. At this stage of the election campaign, party planners will attempt to consolidate that position and make headway on the issues of health, education and crime, where it regards the Government as vulnerable. It is also likely to engage in a hard sell of its election promises which are directed particularly at low paid workers, young couples and pensioners.The Labour Party has also been given cause for satisfaction with a two point rise in its core vote and the prospect of further gains. At the same time, a limited number of candidates has worked to erode national support levels for Sinn Féin, the Green Party and Independents, although they may still increase their levels of representation in the Dáil.
Two tendencies have been identified by this opinion poll: the likelihood that Fianna Fáil will lead the next government and a contrasting capacity of the main opposition parties to stage a strong recovery. The coming days may tip the balance one way or the other.