The Fianna Fáil ministers gathering for today's Cabinet meeting in Avondale will be looking forward to their summer break with a mixture of relief and nervousness. With less than a year to go to the general election, the party is not in the position vis-à-vis the electorate that it thought it would occupy. Recent opinion polls, suggesting that the party could lose anywhere between 10 and 20 seats, have shocked Fianna Fáil TDs and given rise to much soul-searching on possible solutions to improve the situation.
One such solution, in the judgment of the Taoiseach, is the return of Niall Blaney TD to the party and the absorption of his political organisation - in spite of local opposition. This move reflects the Taoiseach's single-minded approach to the election. The exercise in Donegal North- East was designed to limit Sinn Féin's growth and heal 35-year-old wounds. This detailed approach to constituency engineering is reflected elsewhere.
Faced with an 11 percentage point drop in support since the last general election, many Fianna Fáil TDs, with some justification, are fearful of losing their seats. Internal strategy committees are devising a fight-back campaign for the autumn. Ministers are preparing positive developments within their departments. It may not be enough to save them. Just as the electorate waited in the long grass for the Labour Party in 1997, it may now be Fianna Fáil's turn. In fact, the Government's popularity has never really recovered from broken promises and the post-election collapse of 2002.
Still, there is a long way to go and Fianna Fáil is a hugely resilient political machine. The economy is doing well. Unemployment is low and people have more money than ever before. Party strategists argue that if they keep their nerve and concentrate on the positives, they can still end up in government with the support of the Progressive Democrats and Independent TDs. This is not enough though to calm the fears of vulnerable backbenchers. In addition, the preliminary census figures caused a stir. Years of careful planning and balanced candidate selection would be put at risk if boundaries had to be changed. The Attorney General, Rory Brady, will report to Cabinet on the matter in September, but nobody is expecting a major revision of constituencies.
The Taoiseach has spoken against a pre-election spending spree. But such restraint is unlikely to recommend itself to ministers or to worried backbenchers. Also, commitments made in the areas of health, education, policing and social partnership already guarantee a sizeable increase in public spending. Rising interest rates and energy prices may generate negative vibrations in advance of party ardfheiseanna planned for November and March. In spite of that, Fianna Fáil strategists are determined to place the economy at centre stage and to contrast their successful stewardship with the untried and untested alternative offered by Fine Gael and the Labour Party. It will make for a fascinating tactical battle.