A sharp exchange of views between Green Party leader Trevor Sargent and Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern on the likelihood of a future coalition arrangement between the parties reflects a growing sense of desperation within Fianna Fáil at the possibility of losing power.
Only last month, the Taoiseach raised the prospect of forming a future government with the assistance of the Progressive Democrats and Independent TDs and brought Niall Blaney back into the party. Before that, Fianna Fáil ministers touted the odds on a post-election arrangement with the Labour Party. These interventions and the findings of a series of opinion polls suggest that the Government cannot be re-elected in its present form.
It is understandable that Fianna Fáil should keep its options open in pre-election manoeuvrings. It clearly hopes that, by doing so, it may be able to attract second or third preference votes from supporters of the Opposition parties. The only obvious post-election arrangement that is ignored, or immediately rejected, involves a coalition pact with Sinn Féin, because of the negative impact that might have on the party's vote. Attempts by Fine Gael and the Labour Party to promote this option in the public mind have been consistently dismissed by the Taoiseach.
Such pre-election skirmishing is normal as the parties seek to maximise their support under the system of proportional representation. In the present circumstances, however, where both Mr Sargent and Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte had already rejected the notion of sharing power with Fianna Fáil, the tactic was particularly transparent. In spite of that, a percentage of voters within both parties disagree with the political strategy of their leaders, and Fianna Fáil is wooing these people on the basis that it has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Mr Sargent responded by saying that he would not do business with Fianna Fáil in its present form and that the party would "ruin the country" if returned to power. By attacking the Government's fiscal reliability and suggesting that it was preparing to "buy" the coming election, the Opposition parties hope to deny it electoral advantage. This has become a consistent message from Fine Gael and the Labour Party in recent months. And they have been provided with useful ammunition by the International Monetary Fund which has warned of an economic downturn after 2007 and has called for a modest fiscal tightening in the coming budget.
Fiscal tightening, of even a modest nature, does not appeal to worried Government backbenchers. Fianna Fáil could lose anywhere between 10 and 20 seats in an election if recent opinion poll results were replicated on polling day. Under such circumstances, Minister for Finance Brian Cowen will be expected to produce a generous, vote-winning budget. But a post-budget "bounce" does not last for very long. And an overly-generous budget could ultimately prove to be counter-productive. It will be a delicate balancing act. In the meantime, expect further dodgy political declarations.