It is not a political earthquake, more a gentle tremor - another sign, however, that social democracy is on the retreat in what was once its bastion, the Nordic countries. In the wake of elections last week the Finnish government of prime minister Matti Vanhanen on Wednesday tendered its resignation, the first stage in two weeks of coalition-building that is likely to see Mr Vanhanen return to power, but at the head of a government of a very different hue.
His liberal Centre Party won the March 18th elections by the narrowest of margins, a one-seat advantage in parliament over the conservative National Coalition Party with which he now wants, and is expected, to form a government. If Vanhanen is successful, non-socialist coalitions will be ruling in four out of the five Nordic countries. Norway alone holds out.
Finland has been governed by the Centre Party, the Social Democrats and the tiny Swedish People's Party since 2003. In the elections the Centre Party won 23.1 per cent of votes and 51 of 200 seats in parliament. The conservatives took 22.3 per cent and 50 seats, while the Social Democrats, 21.4 per cent and 45 seats, down eight. The latter, for the first time since 1962, have been reduced to third party status.
The election was most remarkable for the strong boost the conservatives got from young urban voters who lapped up their tax-cutting message. But, unlike Sweden where a moderate-centre right coalition ousted the Social Democrats six months ago and has now relaunched privatisation, few expect dramatic changes of policy in consensual Finland. "Finnish conservatives are not very conservative, Finnish socialists are not very socialist, so things will stay pretty much the same," Risto Penttila, a business leader, has explained succinctly.
Of some interest to Ireland, once the coalition is formed, is likely to be how the lively debate on the neutral country's security policy will develop. Although largely ignored by nervous candidates in the election, the issue of Finnish possible membership of Nato has gone up the agenda as concerns about Russia rise. Defence Minister Seppo Kääriäinen narrows down the options to two: either the defence forces need more money, or the country should join Nato. A majority says that more money for defence is preferable to joining Nato, but an alternative option being canvassed as a way around the problem of an unpopular Nato is the idea of a European Union common defence policy.
Worth noting too is that the Finnish parliament now has a record number of women in its ranks - 84 out of 200. A far cry from the Dáil's 22.