Good public policy-making depends on accurate statistics. This is especially so when rapid social change upsets existing employment conditions and rates of pay, creating fears about worsening working conditions.
Those involved in making and debating policy about immigration have, therefore, good reason to be grateful for the study published yesterday by Allied Irish Banks' economic research division on the number of foreign migrant workers in the Irish economy.
Based on previously unpublished data in the Central Statistics Office Quarterly National Household Survey from last year, the research shows there were 159,300 foreign workers, representing 8 per cent of the total of 1,989,800 in employment. Over the previous year they represented just less than half the total increase in employment here, reflecting the strong flow of workers from the new EU accession states in the 15 months after they joined on May 1st, 2004.
But these newcomers were only 31 per cent of the foreign workers here. Overall, they were spread widely and evenly throughout the different sectors of the economy. The construction sector has 22,600 foreign workers, 9 per cent of its total employment; while this is a higher proportion than before, the great bulk of increased construction employment last year went to Irish workers. And the proportions in production industries, hotels and restaurants, financial and business services, education and health and the wholesale and retail trades were roughly similar.
This relatively even spread and density of migratory workers reflects full employment conditions in the economy. They are in line with other EU member-states, especially those which have had strong growth. But the numbers have increased exceptionally rapidly in the last two years, raising understandable worries about future trends. This research shows that the demand and supply of labour are closely aligned, from which it is rational to conclude that, should growth fall off, so would migration. Compared to that, there is insufficient evidence from the data about whether or not Irish workers have been displaced or have moved to better jobs elsewhere.
Arguments about displacement, how to prevent immigrants being exploited and how best to train and find work for the significant numbers of Irish people who remain unemployed will be taken up at the social partnership talks, which began in earnest yesterday.
EU states will also be presented with a report this week showing that fears about migration from the new accession states have been exaggerated. These are pressing issues. But they are best addressed with accurate evidence.