France moves left

In what became a dramatic mid-term referendum on France's centre-right government, voters in Sunday's regional elections trounced…

In what became a dramatic mid-term referendum on France's centre-right government, voters in Sunday's regional elections trounced the incumbents and gave a major boost to the left-wing opposition. The result seems certain to cause a government shuffle and will stall or even undermine its ambitious plans for health, welfare, employment and pension reforms.

These antagonised voters and gave the left victory in 20 out of the 22 regional assemblies.

The next general and presidential elections are not due until 2007. In 2002 President Jacques Chirac was re-elected overwhelmingly on the second round after the strong performance of Mr Jean-Marie Le Pen in the first one. Mr Chirac's centre-right coalition gained an overall majority, defeating the outgoing left-wing government, which had lost its way.

After years of cohabitation between presidents and governments from different political backgrounds the new majorities gave an opportunity for comprehensive reforms of health, education, pensions, welfare and a shake-up in the labour market.

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This is what Mr Chirac and his prime minister, Mr Jean Pierre Raffarin, proceeded to do. They have had a real impact on workers, pensioners and those relying on welfare. The Socialists, Communists and Greens used the regional elections to harness that discontent, with an increased turnout. On this occasion they have outperformed the National Front, which failed to capture any of the assemblies.

It is a classic protest vote, which will not have any direct effect on the government's majority, but is bound to change its personnel and policies. Mr Raffarin himself may not survive, while several of his ministers - notably those who are in charge of finance, health and education - are expected to be moved.

Mr Chirac himself looks vulnerable in the resulting political uncertainty, if he still harbours ambitions to stand again in 2007. He faces a tricky decision on whether to replace Mr Raffarin or keep him on as a scapegoat to deliver unpopular decisions. The alternative would be to promote the politically buoyant minister of the interior, Mr Nicolas Sarkozy, who is a clear contender for Mr Chirac's own job next time.

Following the swing to the left in Spain, these results continue a pattern of change in European politics. The next test will be in the European Parliament elections in June, which up to recently were expected to be won by the centre-right. These results show how national and European politics are becoming increasingly entwined. Stalled reforms in France will have an EU-wide impact.