France's latest turmoil

Two shadows lie over French politics this week as the conflict over new employment legislation for young job seekers intensifies…

Two shadows lie over French politics this week as the conflict over new employment legislation for young job seekers intensifies.

The memory of successful social protests in 1995 over a similar reform package, which led on to the centre-right losing parliamentary elections two years later, animates President Chirac and his prime minister Dominique de Villepin in their determination to see the changes through.

They and their protagonists are ever mindful that presidential elections next year could be framed by the outcome of this dispute. Both sides are mobilising to ensure they do not lose them prematurely this week.

Mr de Villepin introduced his first employment contract reform in January, with the intention of making it easier for employers to hire and fire workers under 26 during their first two years of employment. The legislation bypasses existing tax levies and redundancy rules which act as disincentives for employers and are blamed by them for the 22 per cent unemployment rate among young people.

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But far from being welcomed by trade unions and student organisations, the reform has been denounced as unfair and direct action has been taken against it in universities. Representatives of the young immigrant communities in French suburbs share this analysis, despite being its potential beneficiaries. They will join the demonstrations against them today and on Saturday. The scale of these protests is being watched carefully for signs of the political as well as the industrial mood.

Mr Chirac yesterday repeated his support for Mr de Villepin, who has offered some modifications in the law but refuses to withdraw it. Associates of the interior minister Nicholas Sarkozy (Mr de Villepin's rival as presidential candidate) have been less supportive. But politically Mr Sarkozy cannot be seen to oppose the change, whatever his reservations about it, for fear of giving an advantage to the left. The Socialist Party wants the issue referred to the constitutional court, and has itself to watch out for competition from the French far left, which has been growing in strength. Hovering over this confrontation also is the shadow of the 2002 presidential election, when Mr Chirac defeated the far right wing Jean-Marie Le Pen in the final round of voting.

Many French voters acknowledge the pressing need for reform of the country's industrial and labour laws to revive employment and economic growth. They are willing to take risks to achieve that end, if necessary by voting across traditional party lines. But this preliminary confrontation is being fought out very much within them.