French Reach For The Tiller

EU governments are now in the process of nominating the first governor of the future European Central Bank (ECB) which will oversee…

EU governments are now in the process of nominating the first governor of the future European Central Bank (ECB) which will oversee economic and monetary union. It is a critically important appointment as the new governor will lead the institution which will have the power to set interest rates and to determine monetary policy. Indeed, it is scarcely an exaggeration to say that the influence wielded by the new governor will be felt in every home and every business in this State and across Europe. He will be the European equivalent of Mr Alan Greenspan, the all-powerful chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Until this week, a consensus appeared to be developing among EU leaders in favour of Mr Wim Duisenberg, the Dutch head of the ECB's forerunner, the European Monetary Institute. But the decision of the French government to nominate Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the Banque de France, has upset these well-laid plans and, in the process, raised fresh questions about the shape of monetary policy in the future euro currency zone. The French move has surprised and angered some of France's EU partners. There is resentment in some quarters that it could further complicate the already difficult transition to monetary union. And some will, no doubt, see the French initiative as an attempt to dominate the ECB by placing their "own man" at the helm. The fundamental issue is not the merits or demerits of either Mr Trichet or Mr Duisenberg. Both have impeccable credentials for the post. Both are noted for their tough financial orthodoxy. Rather, the issue is the long-term credibility of the EMU project itself. That credibility must be built on the firm belief in the markets - and outside them - that the ECB will shape monetary policy in a fair and independent way in the wider European interest. Any suspicion that the ECB might be susceptible to direct political interference from Paris or any other EU capital could prove fatal. It may be that the French move has been misinterpreted. It may be it is part of wider power play designed to secure another senior international post for France; it may be part of an attempt by Paris to reassert it influence on the EMU debate after a period in which Germany has very much set the agenda. It may be that some in France - who have styled Mr Duisenberg as a Bundesbank "clone" - are intent on provoking a contest in the hope that someone more amenable to the French interest will emerge as a compromise candidate. For the Government, all of this could present some awkward policy options. The French could prove valuable allies in the forthcoming battles on CAP reform and structural funding - and the Government would be slow to burn any bridges with Paris. But it must also look to the specific needs of smaller EU countries and the wider European interest. From the Irish perspective, the case for an ECB governor from a small EU state like the Netherlands is very persuasive. The alternative - an ECB governor from one of the major European powers like France - might not be in the best interests of Europe.