There are welcome signs that the political convulsions in Indonesia have begun to produce real movement on the future of East Timor. President Habibie, who succeeded President Suharto last month, has proposed new autonomous arrangements for the territory, which Indonesia brutally occupied in 1975 and annexed from Portugal the following year with major loss of life. He has now had a meeting with Bishop Carlos Belo, the East Timorese Nobel Prize winner, during which he undertook to begin a gradual withdrawal of Indonesian troops. Clearly, Mr Suharto's departure, along with the outcome of an associated power struggle in the military, has opened up space in which the issue can be openly confronted, even if it remains far from being satisfactorily resolved. It has become a running sore for Indonesia's foreign policy as a result of courageous East Timorese resistance to the occupation and an effective international solidarity campaign. Over recent months several emerging opposition movements in Indonesia have made common cause with the East Timorese. Bishop Belo commended Mr Habibie's willingness to have a dialogue by saying openly he hopes the new president will not be merely a transitional figure.
The offer of autonomy has been rejected by resistance leaders and by Portugal, still recognised at the United Nations as the legally responsible occupying power. According to Mr Ali Alatas, the Indonesian foreign minister, it would leave budgetary, foreign and defence affairs with the Indonesian government. Although elements of the military have profited from the occupation by controlling exports of tea, tissues, coffee and marble, and by overseeing the migration of some 300,000 Indonesians to East Timor, they may have lost out in the post-Suharto transition. The particular military faction with most influence was commanded by Mr Suharto's extremely hard-line son-in-law, General Prabowo, who is now out of favour. Troop casualties have been relatively high - including the recent loss of leading commanders in a helicopter crash.
The main demands of the resistance movements, now put forward openly on the streets of the territory, are for the release of political prisoners (notably Mr Xanana Gusmao, leader of Fretilin), an end to human rights abuses, the withdrawal of troops and an internationally supervised referendum on East Timor's future. This would presumably pose the question of self-determination in a series of options, including outright independence, confederation (with Portugal or Indonesia), and the existing integration with Indonesia. The resistance movement was previously willing to allow several years of normalisation before a referendum would be held, but may now argue for a more rapid timetable. And the large question of whether recent immigrants would be allowed to vote, remains very divisive. Indonesia is much more vulnerable to international pressure on East Timor following its grave economic disintegration, addressed once more yesterday in another IMF rescue package. The European Union has taken up the issue more urgently and is sending a delegation to the territory. Ireland has played a constructive role in bringing the problem to international attention. With a greater openness to change in Jakarta, now is the time to keep up the pressure and to expect progress towards a settlement.