Bord Failte was noticeably upbeat yesterday in its prognosis for tourism in the current year. It has a target for 6 per cent growth in visitor numbers - slightly less than in previous years - but with 6 million visitors now arriving annually, high growth figures become more difficult to attain. It must be asked, however, if growth in numbers is necessarily a good thing when visitors now outnumber the native population.
The strength of the dollar and sterling against the euro currencies gives a clear fillip to our tourism performance from North America and Britain. Bord Failte says that Ireland is gaining market share at the expense of other European countries. This would suggest that our product, as well as our price, is well-judged for our two most important markets. At the same time, the present weakness of the euro against the two other currencies is unlikely to continue over time and the Irish tourist industry cannot rely on a competitive advantage bestowed on it by speculative forces.
The industry, in short, must not take its eye off the need to be competitive. Just because growth now appears to be almost automatic, does not mean this situation will continue indefinitely. International tourism is a very fluid business. Fashions come and go and Ireland is currently fashionable. Other countries are studying our success and, clearly, they will attempt to copy our methods and gain market share at our expense.
The debate must now be about the merits of deliberately giving up market share - in favour of increasing earnings. This will mean fewer tourists but more revenue. A strategy of relinquishing market share is not one which would appeal to most industries but there are compelling arguments for advocating this strategy in the present development of the Irish tourist industry.
Our natural landscape is one of the most enduring advantages Ireland has. But it risks being overwhelmed by the numbers of people now seeking to enjoy it. Some overseas tour operators who send their customers here have openly voiced their concern that the Ring of Kerry and Connemara face gridlock in the high season which destroys the very charm which seduced the visitors in the first place. There is a more intangible difficulty in that great numbers, and the appearance of effortless success in attracting visitors, may reduce the quality of Irish hospitality which is another foundation stone of the tourist industry.
We need to consider the possibility that fewer may be better. A country which sets out to limit the numbers it wishes to attract may be a little eccentric in terms of international tourism, but it makes good sense. The notion that a country consciously sets out to curtail its tourism growth creates a sense, at home and among our visitors, that we have a product that is not suitable to mass tourism and can therefore command a premium, both in the quality of the experience and in the revenue earned, which will not be easily matched.