In four weeks' time, on September 27th, Germans go to the polls to elect a new parliament. Whatever the outcome, their country faces a difficult and challenging period of economic and political adjustment during which German national interests can be expected to be more in the foreground of its political rhetoric. Germany's neighbours and partners have become accustomed to a somewhat different set of themes on European affairs. The Chancellor, Dr Kohl, has insisted that his goal is a European Germany not a German-dominated Europe. During his 18 years as Chancellor, Dr Kohl was content to promote German interests by successfully shaping the international milieu in which they were expressed. It had been expected that he would continue this policy during the election campaign, emphasising economic and monetary union and the necessity for stable and continuing leadership from his Coalition government. In the event, however, the European theme has been muted, as the campaign concentrates overwhelmingly on domestic affairs. Instead of confirming his leading role as a European statesman, Dr Kohl has been in truculent mood, quarrelling with Brussels over the thrust of its competitive policies and the status of German state aid to industry, and insisting that Germany is getting a raw deal.
The opposition Social Democrats, led by Mr Gerhard Schroder skilfully suppressed their reservations on EMU, thus depriving Dr Kohl of his strong card and forcing him to concentrate on domestic issues. Their programme for the first 100 days in office announced last week emphasises employment policy, co-operation between business and trade unions, welfare reform and changes to the taxation system. It is cautious on commitments, saying the party will not make promises it cannot fulfil. The outgoing Christian Democrats-Liberal coalition reached an impasse on tax and welfare reform as pressure mounted on Germany's international competitive position. The Social Democrats have been appealing to middle-ground voters and to the business class for a modernising agenda akin to that of Mr Blair in Britain. But the traditional commitment to equality and welfare remains strong and they cannot afford to alienate the party's core voters. Many sense a mood for change after the long period of Dr Kohl's rule, but varying opinion polls suggest his defeat cannot be taken for granted. We can expect some vicious campaigning in the weeks to come. Dr Kohl has targeted the Green Party as a volatile partner for the Social Democrats, with unacceptable policies on petrol taxes, speed limits and foreign affairs. The alternative could be a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, as Mr Schroder has been hinting, much to Dr Kohl's frustration. This would put paid to Dr Kohl's leadership. It would also disappoint millions of voters anxious for a change of generation and style as well as political substance. Germany's European partners can expect much continuity whoever wins. But a Social DemocratsGreen alliance would undoubtedly alter the balance of European policy more than a grand coalition, opening up a new political conjuncture as EMU is introduced and the more definitive post-Cold War shape of Europe is defined.