A most uncharacteristic confusion attended the heart of German politics yesterday when talks between the two major parties on forming a national coalition government unravelled amid a series of resignations and political miscalculations.
It now looks unlikely that a functioning government can be formed soon, creating substantial new uncertainty in European politics.
Following the resignation of Franz Müntefering as chairman of the Social Democratic Party on Monday after his nominee was defeated in a party vote for its secretary-general, his counterpart in the Christian Social Union, Edmund Stoiber, announced that he will not participate in the new coalition. This leaves Angela Merkel, leader of the CSU's sister party, the Christian Democrats, in an invidious position. She is now without her two major interlocutors for the remainder of the coalition negotiations and unsure whether the compromises on which these have been based are capable of delivery. Mr Müntefering's statement yesterday that he is still willing to serve in a grand coalition does not retrieve his position because of these new uncertainties.
The SPvote went decisively against Mr Müntefering, as left-wingers and a younger generation of activists opposed his nominee. Party insiders insisted yesterday that this does not represent a shift towards the left but rather an overdue rebalancing of interests in the SPD. If that is so, Mr Müntefering misjudged the vote as one of confidence in him and the terms negotiated with Dr Merkel - notably substantial budgetary cuts to bring Germany back into line with the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact. He and his party colleagues should have seen this coming and prepared better to deliver a new leadership and coalition platform at the SPD's conference on November 14th.
It looks as if there are undercurrents of a genuine left-right conflict within the SPD which remains unresolved and which Gerhard Schröder, the outgoing party leader who Mr Müntefering replaced, hinted at when he called September's elections earlier than expected last summer. He has also departed the political scene, leaving his party in substantial disarray. It is not impossible that a grand coalition could still be agreed before Christmas, but it would probably not be stable, opening up the prospect of another general election next summer.
Prolonged political uncertainty in Germany is not good for that country or for Europe as a whole. If a grand coalition does not come together market confidence in the German economy will diminish over coming months, creating ripple effects elsewhere - including for the euro.