Germany's federal election campaign has been enervated by the disastrous flooding in the east of the country and now by the first television debate between the Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroeder and the main opposition candidate, the Bavarian premier, Mr Edmund Stoiber.
While Mr Schroeder has clearly gained in public support by his decisive response to the floods, Mr Stoiber did surprisingly well in the debate. Their conflicting views on the economy, unemployment and Iraq were well aired and will figure prominently in the remaining campaign before voting on Sunday 22nd September.
Mr Schroeder has understood well the need to react forcefully and decisively to the flooding disaster. It enabled him to assert the values of social solidarity on which his party claims to be founded. The cabinet decision last week to defer planned tax cuts and transfer the revenue to the victims enabled them to project simultaneously an image of concern and fiscal responsibility. Well before the floods Germany was approaching very close to the three per cent limit on budgetary deficits laid down in the Maastricht Treaty guidelines on the euro. This crisis has helped deflect such criticism from Mr Schroeder.
Instead Mr Stoiber concentrated in the debate on what he described as another natural catastrophe, Germany's nine per cent rate of unemployment. The latest figures have forced Mr Schroeder to admit he has failed to achieve his objective of reducing it decisively during his four years in power.
Mr Stoiber makes much of his economic achievements in Bavaria, which has had above average rates of growth and employment. This is based, he says, on a more flexible approach to economic policy than the Social Democrats are capable of delivering at national level because of their commitment to social protection and over-regulation. Voters elsewhere in Germany have yet to be convinced; but they are paying close attention to his arguments, despite an engrained if stereotypical suspicion of Bavarian political figures elsewhere in the country.
Mr Schroeder has taken a forward stand on Iraq, saying his government will not participate in an attack on that country led by the United States, despite its NATO membership. This chimes well with public opinion, whether in its traditional post-war reluctance to contemplate external aggression or in its more recent willingness to assert the German national interest. Mr Stoiber's argument that this irresponsibly avoids involvement puts him in a weaker position.
Much hangs on the outcome of this election, both for Germany's domestic politics and for the wider European Union of which it is the largest and most influential member-state. A Stoiber victory would round off the clear trend elsewhere towards centre-right governments; a victory for Mr Schroeder and his party would reinforce political diversity in the EU. After this debate the contest remains very much open.