Ghosts of choices past return to haunt party leaders

The usual good cheer in the week before Christmas was muted in the political world due to the publication of the Moriarty tribunal…

The usual good cheer in the week before Christmas was muted in the political world due to the publication of the Moriarty tribunal report, which raised all sorts of ghosts from politics past. All the main party leaders now have choices to make about how much of the past is relevant to the current phase of political debate.

The most striking thing about the response to the Moriarty tribunal has been the near total silence from Fianna Fáil. Given the sheer scale of the greed and corruption displayed by the former party leader and taoiseach, which the tribunal outlined in painstaking detail, his party might have been expected to address the implications for its own sake, as well as that of the public.

Not one senior party figure even came forward to express their revulsion at the fact that Haughey looted the fund raised for Brian Lenihan's liver operation and abused the Fianna Fáil party leader's allowance for his own gain.

Apart from the pledge to examine the report in detail over Christmas, the response was an embarrassed silence.

READ MORE

That silence allowed the Opposition leaders free rein to attack Fianna Fail.

"The findings confirm that a culture of corruption, self-enrichment and abuse of public money was prevalent at the top of Fianna Fáil for many years," maintained Enda Kenny.

Pat Rabbitte made precisely the same point, claiming the report was "a damning indictment not just of the record of Charles J Haughey but of the entire political culture in Fianna Fáil during the period when he dominated that party."

Just to add to the embarrassment, Bertie Ahern's role in signing blank cheques for Haughey naturally featured prominently in the blanket media coverage of the report. It clearly opened up old wounds for the Taoiseach, particularly as it also resurrected references to the payments controversy of a few months ago.

Ahern showed his annoyance at the way the media had treated that episode in an uncharacteristically frank Christmas radio message, in which he described it "a hugely unfair period".

Claiming that there was a clear political agenda behind the controversy, he said: "There are those who are personally out to get you all of the time. Some of them have been personally out to get me for 20 years."

Given that Ahern had managed not only to survive the controversy, but to come out of it with enhanced personal popularity and increased support for Fianna Fáil, his show of anger was surprising.

It was an indication that he may not be as supremely confident as some of his supporters about the inevitably of a return to power in the forthcoming election.

That confidence in a third successive victory for Ahern has blossomed since the payments controversy ended in such an unexpected fashion.

Fianna Fáil TDs were cock-a-hoop and the main Opposition parties were left in disarray at the turn of events that saw their lead in the polls evaporate at a critical point before the election campaign proper.

Fine Gael and Labour face a formidable task in the New Year in convincing the public and the media that they at least have a chance of winning power.

If they don't look like contenders by the time the election is called, the campaign will not be about a choice of governments but about which party will share power with Fianna Fáil when it is all over.

Michael McDowell has already had some success in switching the debate on to this territory and he was given assistance from an unlikely source when Pat Rabbitte, in the course of a TV3 interview with Ursula Halligan, gave mixed signals about whether or not he would be open to doing a deal with Fianna Fáil after the election.

Rabbitte was elected as Labour leader by the membership in 2002 precisely because he announced his firm intention of getting Fianna Fáil out and he subsequently got a ringing endorsement from a Labour conference for his strategy of fighting a joint campaign with Fine Gael. It was a blunder to give the impression at this late stage that he is shifting position.

Although Rabbitte subsequently clarified his remarks by reiterating his commitment to forming an alternative government, he gave an opening to his opponents to suggest that he is not really serious about that course of action.

There is a wide belief in both Fianna Fáil and in the media that Labour will shift its ground and do a deal with Fianna Fáil after the election if the numbers don't add up with Fine Gael.

If this view becomes the accepted wisdom among the voters before the election is even called, it will confer a huge advantage on Fianna Fail.

The last election was over before it started when it became clear there was no alternative government on offer; it will be the same next time around if the two main Opposition parties do not shape up as a credible alternative.

For that alternative to have credibility Enda Kenny will also have to shape up as a potential taoiseach.

On one level, Kenny has done a remarkable job in bringing Fine Gael back from the brink of oblivion and putting it in a position where it will inevitably make significant gains in the election. However, the real problem is that the party could gain 20 seats and even more, but still fail to win power if Labour does not also do well.

In order to keep Labour solidly committed to the alternative government strategy, Kenny has to appear like a winner. That will require a consistent level of performance from him at a higher level than he has achieved to date.

The key will be to convince the voters that a change of government is not just a desirable end in itself, but is something that will improve their lives.