The electorate has swung more firmly behind the Government during the past month in anticipation of a generous December Budget and an expansionary National Development Plan. Satisfaction levels have risen most emphatically among pensioners and lower-income groups where increases in welfare payments and other benefits have been promised. But many middle-class voters are keeping their powder dry.
The snapshot of public attitudes provided by the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll may encourage the Government to cut the top rate of income tax, rather than concentrate the bulk of its resources on increasing tax credits in the Budget.
Even in the absence of such "fine tuning" by Minister for Finance Brian Cowen, however, it is clear the alternative government of Fine Gael, Labour, and possibly the Green Party, is facing an exceptionally difficult task in convincing the electorate of its relevance, competence and cohesion.
Warnings of a downturn in the housing market, along with higher fuel prices and rising interest rates, have contributed to uncertainty. But the Government's central message: that opposition policies would destroy the living standards it has provided, appears to have resonated with voters.
The perceptual gap between what people would like to happen and what they expect to happen also favours the Government. Four out of 10 people would like to see the current Government returned to power, but an additional 15 per cent believe that this will happen. In contrast, 31 per cent of voters support the formation of an alternative government but only 17 per cent have confidence in such an outcome.
Having weathered the storm of controversy that surrounded payments from his friends while he was Minister for Finance in 1994, Bertie Ahern will be gratified to have increased his lead in the "beauty contest" of political leaders. A satisfaction rating of 59 per cent has stretched his advantage to 13 points over his nearest challenger, Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte.
Support levels for the parties are largely unchanged since last October. But longer-term trends are noteworthy. Fianna Fáil has returned its strongest showing since the general election of 2002. But it is still two points shy of that result and is in danger of losing a number of Dáil seats. Fine Gael has added five points and, at 27 per cent, would gain new ground. Support for the Labour Party, Sinn Féin and the Green Party remains at 2002 levels, while the Progressive Democrats have dropped a point to 3 per cent.
With an election due in about six months, the results of this opinion poll will hearten Fianna Fáil while causing dismay to the smaller parties. It will also focus attention on the likely composition of the next government. In that regard, a warning by Tánaiste Michael McDowell about a possible Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin coalition may be a harbinger of things to come.