The Coalition Government will take comfort from the findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which shows that, during the past two months, the level of public satisfaction with its performance has grown by nine points to 55 per cent. This advance was made in spite of an unpopular December Budget and of farmer unrest leading to the blockade of meat plants. The improvement in the fortunes of the Government is echoed by a less dramatic increase of two points, to 49 per cent, in the level of support for Fianna Fail. But support for the Progressive Democrats declined by one point, to 3 per cent, in the same period.
Notwithstanding the diverging fortunes of the Coalition parties, their strength in the polls at this time suggests a potential return to government. Of course, that outcome would depend on the circumstances in which an election was called and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has insisted the Government will continue for a further two years. Independent TDs may, however, have the final say. The Progressive Democrats have already rejected the notion of a pre-election voting pact with Fianna Fail and, with an eye to the work of the various tribunals, have announced a go-it-alone policy. But the outlook for the coalition arrangement is fair. Even allowing for a new methodology designed by MRBI to deal with lower voter turnout and an overstatement of Fianna Fail's strength, the figures at this time favour a continuation of the Coalition Government.
The Opposition parties have a mountain to climb if they are to deny the Government a second term in office. There are obvious, short-term opportunities to make political gains. The Government will have to reshape an unpopular Budget in the Finance Bill to deal with public dissatisfaction. And the dispute between farmers and processors in the beef sector remains to be resolved. But while Fine Gael has started to make progress, gaining three points to 26 per cent over two months, the Labour Party has fallen back and dropped three points to 11 per cent. At the same time, support for the Green Party and Sinn Fein remains largely static.
Satisfaction with the Government has almost certainly been underpinned by the billion pounds committed to various tax breaks in the Budget, in spite of its obvious social failings. Individual voters may have computed their future gains and quietly approved of their prospects in a booming economy. But a major factor contributing to the higher satisfaction rating was a closing of ranks by Fianna Fail voters. Last November, as financial scandals and tribunal hearings shook the establishment, satisfaction with the Government amongst Fianna Fail supporters dropped to 64 per cent. Earlier this week, in a calmer atmosphere, it had recovered to 77 per cent.
Although 52 per cent of those surveyed were dissatisfied with the Budget and a further 66 per cent wished to see it changed or scrapped, many voters might not be prepared to forgo awards already announced. Individualisation of the tax bands was the main reason for public dissatisfaction with the Budget, followed by a belief that it did not go far enough to tackle poverty and help the lower paid. Middle-class voters and those of child rearing age were most critical on the individualisation issue, while working-class voters and those over 50 years of age focused on the issue of low pay and poverty. It all adds up to a very difficult political situation for the Government and for the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, as they seek to address public concerns without further undermining fiscal policy.