The latest employment figures show the resilience of the jobs market in what was a difficult year.
Helped by a strong performance during the autumn, the total number of people at work last October was almost 45,000 higher than one year earlier. The unemployment rate, which had climbed close to 5 per cent during the summer, fell back to 4.6 per cent, a remarkable performance by international standards.
The figures, published by the Central Statistics Office, suggest that the jobs market is operating fairly efficiently and flexibly. Evidence of the pick-up is contained not only in the headline data, but also in the detail. It shows a strong recovery in the services sector which is more than compensating for a drop in the manufacturing sector. Also, while much of the jobs growth in the earlier months of the year was in part-time employment, the latest figures show a welcome rise in full-time jobs.
On the face of it, the figures provide cause for confidence about the economic outlook. Although a few months out of date, they suggest that the economy started to recover some time early last year and that this fed through fairly quickly into the jobs market. As the world economy picks up, this should underpin growth here and, in particular, should help to stem the losses being seen in the manufacturing sector.
The figures will come as welcome news for the Government. Following the recent exchequer data, they provide further evidence that the economy, having survived a difficult period, is now firmly on the up. This week Davy stockbrokers upgraded their Gross National Product growth forecast for 2004 to almost 4 per cent, reflecting a general optimism among forecasters.
There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. The manufacturing sector remains under pressure and recent figures have shown an increase in redundancy levels. Also, rising public sector numbers have contributed much to jobs growth over the past couple of years. The Government has pledged to stop this growth and, if it succeeds, this will slow the overall rise in employment.
The international outlook also remains uncertain. Most forecasters are confident that the global upturn can be sustained, but recent figures - notably on the US jobs market - have raised some worrying questions. New forces, including the enlargement of the EU and the economic rise of China, are also changing the landscape.
So far the Republic's economy has adapted well. But if we do not continue to build competitiveness in all its forms, the gains of recent years could quickly begin to slip away.