SUPPORT FOR the Government has collapsed in the aftermath of the Budget, a worsening economic situation, the banking crisis, rising unemployment and uncertain leadership. It was to be expected that the unheralded recession, following more than a decade of rapid growth, would impact severely on Government popularity.
But the unprecedented level of dissatisfaction across all age and social groupings and in all regions has generated a drop in support of 28 points since last June. That precipitous fall has resulted in the lowest level of public support for a government - 18 per cent - since opinion polling began more than a quarter of a century ago.
Public confidence is a hugely important ingredient if we are to limit the period of time spent in recession. Unfortunately, this Government has failed to provide timely, effective and convincing leadership when it was most needed. Its unpopularity is not simply based on attempts to remove medical cards from the over-70s, because satisfaction is highest within this age group. Rather, it is grounded in a general failure of Ministers to convince voters they are in control. They have failed to explain clearly what they are doing, and why, and to offer assurances about what and when benefits can be expected to flow from difficult and unpopular decisions.
Since taking over as Taoiseach last May, Brian Cowen has seen his satisfaction rating halve, to 26 per cent, according to the latest Irish Times/TNSmrbi opinion poll. That turnabout must represent one of the shortest political "honeymoons" in Irish history, as economic woes were piled on defeat in the Lisbon referendum. For the Fianna Fáil party, the situation is devastating. Having initially attracted public confidence to deal with a downturn, the party has now shed 15 points. It trails a resurgent Fine Gael by seven points overall, another unprecedented development. And, in Dublin, it comes behind both Fine Gael and the Labour Party. Those figures, if replicated in next year's local and European elections, would redraw the political map.
Fine Gael is the prime beneficiary of public disquiet. Backing for the party now stands at 34 per cent. But overall satisfaction with party leader Enda Kenny continues to decline and fewer than two-thirds of party supporters are happy with his leadership. The Labour Party dipped marginally while Eamon Gilmore was the leader with the highest satisfaction rating. Sinn Féin remained static. Support for the Green Party held up remarkably well, while satisfaction with party leader John Gormley took a battering and fell by 12 points. But within the organisation he still attracted support from three-quarters of the membership. Departure of the Progressive Democrats from the political stage brought an increase in support for "Independents and others". But the bulk of this shift may represent disillusioned Fianna Fáil voters. What is beyond doubt is that the electorate is deeply unsettled and is looking for clear direction and strong leadership. These findings are serious because the poll was conducted many weeks after the immediate heat of the Budget.