The Green Party meets in Kilkenny this weekend, increasingly hopeful that power lies ahead, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
With 12 months to go to the general election, barring accidents, the Green Party has the scent of power in its nostrils, matched with butterfly nerves that it could all go wrong at the last minute.
There is much that could go wrong. The next election is crucial. One of the possible coalition options, led by Fine Gael/Labour, will definitely need the Greens if it is to have any chance of making up the numbers.
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil would certainly do business if the need arose, regardless of the hysterical "muesli-eating sandal-wearers" attacks so often unleashed by party figures.
Though the anticipation of office is there, it is not yet clear that the Green rank-and-file has fully grasped the reality that power brings with it hard choices and messy compromise.
Two years ago a leading German Green told them during a private session at their party conference that if they were not prepared to negotiate then they were not ready for power.
The advice sounded exciting in theory, but the German Greens struggled mightily before abandoning opposition to nuclear power as part of a 2000 deal with their then coalition partner the Social Democrats.
For the last year Irish senior party figures, in strategy papers that have remained confidential, have tried to hone the list of "must haves" that the Greens would insist on in coalition talks. The list will be ready before the general election, say TDs, but it will not be put to a special delegate conference until after the general election results are known.
Cork South Central TD Dan Boyle, who handles the finance portfolio, has gone out of his way not to add fuel to Fianna Fáil's charge that the economy would go to rack and ruin if controlled, even partly, by the Greens.
Instead, Mr Boyle has been the very embodiment of financial caution. Spending would be tied to growth. Income taxes would not rise. Corporation and capital taxes would stay the same.
Last year the Greens decided to keep all coalition options open, although party leader Trevor Sargent effectively commandeered the debate by subsequently insisting that he would quit rather than join with Fianna Fáil.
For now Mr Sargent's action has not raised feathers within his organisation because most of them think he is right. The working assumption, rightly or wrongly, of most of the others is that the public wants rid of Fianna Fáil.
However, significant numbers of Greens, including TDs, are far more inclined to do business with Fianna Fáil than they let on publicly, while relations with Fine Gael and Labour are not as warm as they perhaps should be.
The Greens have often felt slighted by the larger Opposition parties, feeling they have not been shown the respect they deserve.
For example, Eamon Ryan's efforts to create an all-party Oireachtas consensus on the State's future energy policy were embraced by Noel Dempsey but rebuffed by Fine Gael and Labour.
Fine Gael's post-European and local election assumption that the Greens would form the third leg of the Rainbow stool if needed equally irritated until Enda Kenny curbed his people.
While the Greens must gain seats to wield power, the party cannot take for granted that it will hold all of its existing seats, three of which must be in danger if Fine Gael delivers the gains it has promised.
Though their politics are as different as chalk and cheese, the Progressive Democrats could impact heavily on the Greens. In 2002, PD voters in urban constituencies gave significant numbers of second preferences to the Greens.
The Greens should be on a roll: oil prices are rising, the polar ice caps are melting, CO2 levels are increasing at historic levels.
In theory, everybody is in favour of the Green agenda: better planning, sustainable development, green energy, and so on.
However, it is far from clear if the public wants the agenda put into practice yet.
Nevertheless, the Greens have found it difficult to hold on to language that was once theirs alone, only to see it now so often commandeered by the larger parties.
The problem partly lies with Mr Sargent, who has never seized control of the public agenda in the way that political party leaders must do in today's media age.
In the Dáil he speaks earnestly but ponderously. Too often the benches begin to empty when he gets to his feet. Too often he fails to go for the political jugular.
Convinced that the tide of history is with him, Mr Sargent, who said this week "the future has to be Green", often seems to forget that political power is achieved by short-term, often opportunistic acts.
In 2004, the Greens could have run Eamon Ryan for the presidency. He wanted to do so. However, the party as a whole shied away nervously when push came to shove.
If handled badly, a presidential race would have crucified the Greens. If it had been handled correctly - ie a professionally run campaign that ended in honourable defeat to Mary McAleese - it could have delivered a breakthrough into the public's consciousness.
The criticism of Mr Sargent is not to take away from his evident popularity within the Green ranks, or from the more than creditable job that he has quietly done to put shape on a difficult organisation. It has not been easy.