Now 25 years old, the Green Party no longer wants to be a party of Opposition. It wants power, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
A Dáil debate about the problems caused by noisy neighbours is not the usual occasion for a faint signal to emerge about the changing political landscape. Last Tuesday, however, was different. For the first time, the Government agreed to let a Green Party Private Members Bill proceed to Second Stage. One after the other, Fianna Fáil TDs were complimentary about the Greens.
"We are not used to this, and we may be a bit coy, but I know that it is said that we should be wary of Greeks bearing gifts," Green Party Dún Laoghaire TD, Ciaran Cuffe told the House.
Though the act of generosity should not be overestimated, and it would be easy to do so, it is, perhaps, evidence of Fianna Fáil's intentions to keep all of its options open in the run-up to the general election.
"I would say it was carefully considered. I doubt if it was accidental. Fianna Fáil is love-bombing us at the moment. They are really pulling at our heart strings," joked one Green TD privately.
Recently, Green Party leader, Trevor Sargent made clear his unwillingness to lead them into coalition with Fianna Fáil, though he did not rule out serving as a minister in such an alliance if it were to happen.
Twenty-five years on, the Greens are tired of Opposition: "I think after all of this time in the wilderness it would be nice to be involved in the process of government rather than being on the sidelines," the TD declared.
Like FF, the Greens have options, depending on how the results of election 2007 pan out, following their decision steadfastly to remain independent of any pre-election alliance.
Though deeply suspicious of Fianna Fáil, and sharply critical of its record over the last 10 years - particularly on the environment, planning, transport and climate change - the Greens are far from enthused about their other options.
Two years ago, and even up to recently, Fine Gael was publicly careful to declare its acceptance of the Greens' independence, while being critical of some of the smaller party's policies, such as those on one-off housing, nitrates, etc.
Today, however, Fine Gael has become more careful publicly and privately about criticising the Greens in any way, following a recent downbeat opinion poll results. "I don't see much coming from Fine Gael at the moment that gives me hope. They are being very cautious. They need to take some chances," another Green Party TD commented privately.
Given the Greens' trenchant criticism of the Government, it would be easier for its parliamentary party to get sanction from the grassroots for a deal with Fine Gael and Labour, if the numbers stack up.
In 2002, the Greens surprised many by winning six seats, particularly Paul Gogarty's victory in the difficult three-seat constituency of Dublin Mid-West and Eamon Ryan in notoriously fickle Dublin South.
Then, the party received 3.8 per cent of the first preference vote. Today, the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows it on 4 per cent - a two percentage point drop on October, so questions must now be raised whether this is a "blip", or the start of a downward trend.
Privately, some Greens believe 10 seats could be won. In reality, the first priority is to hold what it has. Subsequently, the ambition is to win in Galway West with Niall Ó Brolcháin, in Wicklow with Deirdre de Burca, and in Carlow/Kilkenny with deputy leader, Mary White.
Further down, attention inside the party focuses on Trish Forde Brennan in Louth - a constituency likely to become even more competitive if Fine Gael's Mairead McGuinness opts to run there.
The decision by Gay Mitchell to stay in the European Parliament and not run again in the Dublin South Central five-seater has ignited Green Party hopes of success for Cllr Tony McDermott. Cllr David Healy will run again in the three-seat Dublin North East, while Cllr Bronwen Maher will carry the flag in Dublin North Central, which is likely to be the electoral equivalent of "the group of death". If the numbers do add up, the Greens will then be faced with some hard choices, marking the end of its period unsullied by political compromises that mark daily life in government.
The internal education of the party ranks has been under way for some years. Greens from Finland, Germany and elsewhere have come to national conferences, delivering one theme in unison.
"They have given us good advice. 'Don't threaten to walk at the drop of a hat, don't threaten to leave, period - until and unless you have to do so.' It would be a huge change for the party," one TD commented.
Such a move will be difficult with any coalition option. Major policies will have to be "parked", if not abandoned altogether, though fewer on the economic front than, perhaps, some would have one believe.
In reality, the Greens' economic agenda is relatively cautious: shift taxes off work and on to unsustainable consumption; increase Capital Gains Tax from 20 per cent to 25 per cent and index-link tax bands and credits. VAT rates should fall, they argue, although the plan to scrap commercial rates and replace them by a site tax would no doubt ignite the usual furore that has surrounded property taxation in the State.
House stamp duties should be reformed to encourage older people to sell off large houses and "downsize" to smaller ones, freeing up bigger properties for young families near to already-built schools.
Faced with having to pay €500 million in Kyoto climate change fines up to 2012, the Greens argues that the State should introduce its own tax to change fuel consumption habits rather than let taxes leach out of the country. Though sensible, and probably inevitable in time, such a move would significantly increase the price of fuel, and is unlikely to prove any more palatable to FG than it already has to FF.
The Greens' demands for extra investment in public transport will be welcomed, though the same cannot be said for its belief that some major road projects should be shelved.
Seven months, or less, out from an election, the Greens are making it clear that they are willing to dance, but not at any cost, and not to every tune. For now, the question is whether they will still be on the dance floor when the music stops.