Yesterday's announcement that the Yugoslav army is to withdraw some of its forces from Kosovo is a signal that at last a ceasefire could be in sight in the war. Inevitably it is being interpreted tactically as a propaganda manoeuvre, part of the diplomatic and military game following NATO's mistaken and disastrous attack on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade last Friday. Given Mr Slobodan Milosevic's record as a proponent of divide and rule methods that is not surprising. But sufficient intense diplomacy is now under way around the world to allow for the hope that agreement could be reached sooner rather than later on a ceasefire and negotiation of a settlement doing justice to the Kosovar people.
After the lethal atrocities in Kosovo in which thousands have died and the foul ethnic cleansing that has expelled hundreds of thousands of its people from their homes it is welcome news indeed that some of those responsible are to withdraw. It is impossible to verify the Serb claim that resistance by the Kosovo Liberation Army has been overcome; it does not sit easily with other reports. NATO sources estimate there could be 150,000 Yugoslav police and military there, overwhelmingly Serb forces. The announcement speaks of reducing their number to what it was before the NATO bombing campaign began in March, but only when agreement has been reached to send in a United Nations mission. It is therefore no wonder that NATO representatives have described it as a half measure, which addresses only one of the five conditions they have laid down for an end to their bombing campaign. But NATO leaders have to take account of international opinion as well as that within their alliance. They are aware of the growing criticism of their military tactics, relying on air power alone to defeat the Serb forces and not seriously contemplating the use of ground troops. Initiatives by Germany to include the Russians and bring the issue back for endorsement by a UN Security Council resolution - which bore fruit in last week's agreement by the Group of Eight industrialised countries - have now been both complicated and deepened by international reaction to the attack on China's embassy in Belgrade.
NATO's demands call for an end to repression in Kosovo, the withdrawal of Serb forces, agreement on a peace force including core members of that alliance, safe return of the refugees and negotiation of a peaceful settlement. Similar, but less unconditional, demands are made by the UN Secretary General and the Group of Eight states. International diplomacy must ensure that each of these elements is addressed in a settlement, even if there are inevitably going to be disagreements on timing and substance. Ireland is geographically remote from this conflict at the other end of Europe, despite the intense media coverage it has received. The arrival of the first refugees from the ethnic cleansing campaign mounted by Serb forces in Kosovo will bring home how dreadful events there over the last seven weeks have been. They deserve the most sympathetic and sensitive welcome to our shores. Their presence in our midst will, it is to be hoped, help alert Irish people fully to the common and universal values at stake in the Kosovo conflict.