The opinion polls had predicted that the Islamic militant faction, Hamas, would do well in the elections for a new Palestinian parliament but the overall majority that it has secured will have come as a surprise to everyone, including Hamas. The election result transforms the Palestinian political situation utterly and has the potential, unless moderation and pragmatism can assert themselves, to render the peace process completely redundant.
The Fatah party, which has dominated the political scene since the Palestinian Authority was formed a decade ago, can blame nobody but itself for its humiliation. The authority is as bankrupt and as it is corrupt, and there is widespread unemployment. The party is indisciplined and riddled with factionalism. It singularly failed to establish law and order; indeed much of the Gaza Strip violence has been caused by factions within Fatah itself. By contrast, the Change and Reform party, established by Hamas to fight the election, is organised and disciplined and it campaigned cleverly on domestic issues.
The reaction to the Hamas victory has been almost uniform. Israel, the United States and member states of the European Union have made it clear that they will neither negotiate with nor fund a government which includes Hamas if it does not renounce its reliance on terror, its suicide bombings and its declared aim to eliminate the state of Israel. The international response differs in its intensity and its emphasis.
Hamas has some difficult decisions to make. Persisting with its agenda of hate and relying on a violent programme will starve Palestine of international friends, render it even more poverty-stricken and encourage those in Israel opposed to the peace process to continue on with the unilateral policies of Ariel Sharon that boosted the Israeli grip on the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Israel holds its own elections in March.
Hamas is not ready for government but it has no choice now. Much will depend on whether the politicians in its ranks can win the argument over the militants. It may be telling that the party's campaign manifesto made no mention of Israel's destruction. But its social policy has been described by Fatah as being similar to the Taliban.
Yesterday, it called for immediate talks on a "new political partnership". The Palestinian president and leader of Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, responded quickly and it will soon be seen whether a coherent government can be formed. The real worry is that there may be no point in asking Hamas to change because the Palestinian people voted for an agenda of hate - not negotiation.